Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

$63.25

+1.60 (+2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 273.81 | 63.25 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,28224,39417,49132,85449,53064,360.7983,632.38108,674.46141,214.91183,498.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 10,1218,8294,71414,47819,39124,686.7932,078.7641,684.1254,165.6270,384.46
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,175-3,535-2,555-4,492-5,103-9,243.67-12,011.51-15,608.12-20,281.66-26,354.61
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5,9465,2942,1599,98614,28815,443.1220,067.2626,076.0133,883.9644,029.85

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 63.25
Beta 2.015
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,149.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.052
Total Debt 11,445
Total Equity 72,685.76
Total Capital 84,130.76
Debt Weighting 13.60
Equity Weighting 86.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,28224,39417,49132,85449,53064,360.7983,632.38108,674.46141,214.91183,498.97
Operating Cash Flow 10,1218,8294,71414,47819,39124,686.7932,078.7641,684.1254,165.6270,384.46
Capital Expenditure -4,175-3,535-2,555-4,492-5,103-9,243.67-12,011.51-15,608.12-20,281.66-26,354.61
Free Cash Flow 5,9465,2942,1599,98614,28815,443.1220,067.2626,076.0133,883.9644,029.85
WACC
PV LFCF 13,707.7215,810.6118,236.0921,033.6724,260.43
SUM PV LFCF 93,048.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 44,910.44
Terminal Value 421,298.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 232,135.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 325,183.94
Net Debt 10,525
Equity Value 314,658.94
Shares Outstanding 1,149.18
Equity Value Per Share 273.81