Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)
$63.25
+1.60 (+2.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 49,530 | 64,360.79 | 83,632.38 | 108,674.46 | 141,214.91 | 183,498.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 19,391 | 24,686.79 | 32,078.76 | 41,684.12 | 54,165.62 | 70,384.46 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,175 | -3,535 | -2,555 | -4,492 | -5,103 | -9,243.67 | -12,011.51 | -15,608.12 | -20,281.66 | -26,354.61 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5,946 | 5,294 | 2,159 | 9,986 | 14,288 | 15,443.12 | 20,067.26 | 26,076.01 | 33,883.96 | 44,029.85 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 63.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.015 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,149.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.83% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.052 |
| Total Debt | 11,445 |
| Total Equity | 72,685.76 |
| Total Capital | 84,130.76 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 49,530 | 64,360.79 | 83,632.38 | 108,674.46 | 141,214.91 | 183,498.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 19,391 | 24,686.79 | 32,078.76 | 41,684.12 | 54,165.62 | 70,384.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,175 | -3,535 | -2,555 | -4,492 | -5,103 | -9,243.67 | -12,011.51 | -15,608.12 | -20,281.66 | -26,354.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,946 | 5,294 | 2,159 | 9,986 | 14,288 | 15,443.12 | 20,067.26 | 26,076.01 | 33,883.96 | 44,029.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 13,707.72 | 15,810.61 | 18,236.09 | 21,033.67 | 24,260.43 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 93,048.52 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.66 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 44,910.44 |
| Terminal Value | 421,298.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 232,135.42 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 325,183.94 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10,525 |
| Equity Value | 314,658.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,149.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 273.81 |