Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

$65.4099

+0.96 (+1.49%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 240.41 | 65.4099 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,282	24,394	17,491	32,854	49,530	64,360.79	83,632.38	108,674.46	141,214.91	183,498.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	10,009	11,138	5,601	15,236	22,113	27,497.65	35,731.29	46,430.33	60,332.99	78,398.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	4,848	5,806	-309	9,830	14,760	13,324.25	17,313.94	22,498.26	29,234.92	37,988.75
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	5,161	5,332	5,910	5,406	7,353	14,173.41	18,417.36	23,932.07	31,098.07	40,409.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	625	629	489	1,053	1,411	1,832.10	2,380.69	3,093.54	4,019.84	5,223.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,148	2,478	2,499	3,111	3,555	5,952.65	7,735.05	10,051.16	13,060.79	16,971.58
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	955	1,152	1,060	1,548	1,815	3,017.87	3,921.51	5,095.72	6,621.54	8,604.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	779	816	667	803	1,341	2,034.59	2,643.81	3,435.45	4,464.13	5,800.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,175	-3,535	-2,555	-4,492	-5,103	-9,243.67	-12,011.51	-15,608.12	-20,281.66	-26,354.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 65.4,099
Beta	2.015
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,149.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	20.19
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.038
Total Debt	11,445
Total Equity	75,167.88
Total Capital	86,612.88
Debt Weighting	13.21
Equity Weighting	86.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,282	24,394	17,491	32,854	49,530	64,360.79	83,632.38	108,674.46	141,214.91	183,498.97
EBITDA	10,009	11,138	5,601	15,236	22,113	27,497.65	35,731.29	46,430.33	60,332.99	78,398.52
EBIT	4,848	5,806	-309	9,830	14,760	13,324.25	17,313.94	22,498.26	29,234.92	37,988.75
Tax Rate	26.43%	-9.28%	50.17%	22.67%	20.19%	22.04%	22.04%	22.04%	22.04%	22.04%
EBIAT	3,566.49	6,344.89	-153.97	7,601.36	11,779.78	10,387.93	13,498.40	17,540.23	22,792.31	29,617.02
Depreciation	5,161	5,332	5,910	5,406	7,353	14,173.41	18,417.36	23,932.07	31,098.07	40,409.78
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,330	-21	-612	-444	-2,397.65	-1,782.40	-2,316.11	-3,009.62	-3,910.80
Inventories	-	-197	92	-488	-267	-1,202.87	-903.64	-1,174.22	-1,525.82	-1,982.69
Accounts Payable	-	37	-149	136	538	693.59	609.22	791.64	1,028.68	1,336.70
Capital Expenditure	-4,175	-3,535	-2,555	-4,492	-5,103	-9,243.67	-12,011.51	-15,608.12	-20,281.66	-26,354.61
UFCF	4,552.49	6,651.89	3,123.03	7,551.36	13,856.78	12,410.75	17,827.42	23,165.49	30,101.95	39,115.39
WACC
PV UFCF						11,013.18	14,038.40	16,187.71	18,666.08	21,523.89
SUM PV UFCF										81,429.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	12.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	39,897.70
Terminal Value	373,224.50
Present Value of Terminal Value	205,372.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	286,802.22
Net Debt	10,525
Equity Value	276,277.22
Shares Outstanding	1,149.18
Equity Value Per Share	240.41