Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
ConocoPhillips (COP)
$108.11
-3.19 (-2.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 29,106 | 36,417 | 32,567 | 18,784 | 45,828 | 59,140.82 | 76,320.96 | 98,491.85 | 127,103.28 | 164,026.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,077 | 12,934 | 11,104 | 4,802 | 16,996 | 18,520.26 | 23,900.31 | 30,843.24 | 39,803.06 | 51,365.66 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,591 | -6,750 | -6,636 | -4,715 | -5,324 | -10,811.37 | -13,952.03 | -18,005.03 | -23,235.40 | -29,985.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,486 | 6,184 | 4,468 | 87 | 11,672 | 7,708.89 | 9,948.28 | 12,838.21 | 16,567.66 | 21,380.48 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 108.11 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.309 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,328.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 36.45 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.59% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.712 |
| Total Debt | 19,934 |
| Total Equity | 143,586.40 |
| Total Capital | 163,520.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.19 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.81 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 29,106 | 36,417 | 32,567 | 18,784 | 45,828 | 59,140.82 | 76,320.96 | 98,491.85 | 127,103.28 | 164,026.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,077 | 12,934 | 11,104 | 4,802 | 16,996 | 18,520.26 | 23,900.31 | 30,843.24 | 39,803.06 | 51,365.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,591 | -6,750 | -6,636 | -4,715 | -5,324 | -10,811.37 | -13,952.03 | -18,005.03 | -23,235.40 | -29,985.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,486 | 6,184 | 4,468 | 87 | 11,672 | 7,708.89 | 9,948.28 | 12,838.21 | 16,567.66 | 21,380.48 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,074.32 | 8,377.88 | 9,921.65 | 11,749.88 | 13,914.99 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 51,038.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 21,808.09 |
| Terminal Value | 312,885.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 203,633.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 254,672.64 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 14,906 |
| Equity Value | 239,766.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,328.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 180.53 |