Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

$165

+2.20 (+1.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 141.90 | 165 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,245.5022,823.3023,610.8025,509.3026,321.2027,457.7128,643.2929,880.0631,170.2432,516.12
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,510.201,7661,869.802,716.301,4312,115.932,207.292,302.602,402.022,505.74
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -632.20-817.10-1,036.70-898.80-1,021-1,000.30-1,043.49-1,088.55-1,135.55-1,184.58
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 878948.90833.101,817.504101,115.631,163.801,214.051,266.481,321.16

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 165
Beta 0.701
Diluted Shares Outstanding 229.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.051
Total Debt 15,114
Total Equity 37,867.50
Total Capital 52,981.50
Debt Weighting 28.53
Equity Weighting 71.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,245.5022,823.3023,610.8025,509.3026,321.2027,457.7128,643.2929,880.0631,170.2432,516.12
Operating Cash Flow 1,510.201,7661,869.802,716.301,4312,115.932,207.292,302.602,402.022,505.74
Capital Expenditure -632.20-817.10-1,036.70-898.80-1,021-1,000.30-1,043.49-1,088.55-1,135.55-1,184.58
Free Cash Flow 878948.90833.101,817.504101,115.631,163.801,214.051,266.481,321.16
WACC
PV LFCF 1,066.571,063.691,060.821,057.961,055.11
SUM PV LFCF 5,304.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,347.58
Terminal Value 51,830.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 41,392.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 46,696.87
Net Debt 14,130
Equity Value 32,566.87
Shares Outstanding 229.50
Equity Value Per Share 141.90