Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
$165
+2.20 (+1.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,245.50 | 22,823.30 | 23,610.80 | 25,509.30 | 26,321.20 | 27,457.71 | 28,643.29 | 29,880.06 | 31,170.24 | 32,516.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,510.20 | 1,766 | 1,869.80 | 2,716.30 | 1,431 | 2,115.93 | 2,207.29 | 2,302.60 | 2,402.02 | 2,505.74 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -632.20 | -817.10 | -1,036.70 | -898.80 | -1,021 | -1,000.30 | -1,043.49 | -1,088.55 | -1,135.55 | -1,184.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 878 | 948.90 | 833.10 | 1,817.50 | 410 | 1,115.63 | 1,163.80 | 1,214.05 | 1,266.48 | 1,321.16 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 165 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.701 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 229.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 18.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.96% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.051 |
| Total Debt | 15,114 |
| Total Equity | 37,867.50 |
| Total Capital | 52,981.50 |
| Debt Weighting | 28.53 |
| Equity Weighting | 71.47 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,245.50 | 22,823.30 | 23,610.80 | 25,509.30 | 26,321.20 | 27,457.71 | 28,643.29 | 29,880.06 | 31,170.24 | 32,516.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,510.20 | 1,766 | 1,869.80 | 2,716.30 | 1,431 | 2,115.93 | 2,207.29 | 2,302.60 | 2,402.02 | 2,505.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -632.20 | -817.10 | -1,036.70 | -898.80 | -1,021 | -1,000.30 | -1,043.49 | -1,088.55 | -1,135.55 | -1,184.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 878 | 948.90 | 833.10 | 1,817.50 | 410 | 1,115.63 | 1,163.80 | 1,214.05 | 1,266.48 | 1,321.16 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,066.57 | 1,063.69 | 1,060.82 | 1,057.96 | 1,055.11 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 5,304.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.60 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,347.58 |
| Terminal Value | 51,830.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 41,392.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 46,696.87 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 14,130 |
| Equity Value | 32,566.87 |
| Shares Outstanding | 229.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 141.90 |