Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

$157.21

+1.70 (+1.09%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 85.02 | 157.21 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,245.50	22,823.30	23,610.80	25,509.30	26,321.20	27,457.71	28,643.29	29,880.06	31,170.24	32,516.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,617	-317.90	1,906.20	2,573.70	2,527.10	2,094.20	2,184.62	2,278.95	2,377.35	2,480
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,005.80	-939	1,260.80	1,887.10	1,811.10	1,346.57	1,404.71	1,465.37	1,528.64	1,594.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	611.20	621.10	645.40	686.60	716	747.63	779.91	813.58	848.71	885.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,097.80	422.10	539.20	1,416.70	984	1,008.26	1,051.79	1,097.20	1,144.58	1,194
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	90.40	100.90	113.30	112.95	116.54	121.58	126.83	132.30	138.01	143.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,169.30	3,536	3,522	3,427	4,367	4,101.21	4,278.29	4,463.02	4,655.73	4,856.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,174.80	1,416.40	1,336.50	1,480.50	1,884	1,653.45	1,724.84	1,799.32	1,877.01	1,958.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-632.20	-817.10	-1,036.70	-898.80	-1,021	-1,000.30	-1,043.49	-1,088.55	-1,135.55	-1,184.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 157.21
Beta	0.703
Diluted Shares Outstanding	229.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.64
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.442
Total Debt	15,114
Total Equity	36,079.69
Total Capital	51,193.69
Debt Weighting	29.52
Equity Weighting	70.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,245.50	22,823.30	23,610.80	25,509.30	26,321.20	27,457.71	28,643.29	29,880.06	31,170.24	32,516.12
EBITDA	2,617	-317.90	1,906.20	2,573.70	2,527.10	2,094.20	2,184.62	2,278.95	2,377.35	2,480
EBIT	2,005.80	-939	1,260.80	1,887.10	1,811.10	1,346.57	1,404.71	1,465.37	1,528.64	1,594.64
Tax Rate	-0.60%	-21.53%	24.73%	22.87%	18.64%	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%	8.82%
EBIAT	2,017.92	-1,141.15	949.01	1,455.51	1,473.45	1,227.77	1,280.79	1,336.09	1,393.78	1,453.96
Depreciation	611.20	621.10	645.40	686.60	716	747.63	779.91	813.58	848.71	885.36
Accounts Receivable	-	-10.50	-12.40	0.35	-3.59	-5.03	-5.25	-5.48	-5.71	-5.96
Inventories	-	-366.70	14	95	-940	265.79	-177.08	-184.73	-192.71	-201.03
Accounts Payable	-	241.60	-79.90	144	403.50	-230.55	71.39	74.48	77.69	81.05
Capital Expenditure	-632.20	-817.10	-1,036.70	-898.80	-1,021	-1,000.30	-1,043.49	-1,088.55	-1,135.55	-1,184.58
UFCF	1,996.92	-1,472.75	479.41	1,482.66	628.35	1,005.31	906.27	945.40	986.22	1,028.80
WACC
PV UFCF						959.09	824.84	820.89	816.95	813.04
SUM PV UFCF										4,234.80

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.82
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,049.38
Terminal Value	37,212.05
Present Value of Terminal Value	29,407.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	33,642.62
Net Debt	14,130
Equity Value	19,512.62
Shares Outstanding	229.50
Equity Value Per Share	85.02