Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

$165

+2.20 (+1.35%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 97.45 | 165 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,245.5022,823.3023,610.8025,509.3026,321.2027,457.7128,643.2929,880.0631,170.2432,516.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,617-317.901,906.202,573.702,527.102,094.202,184.622,278.952,377.352,480
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,005.80-9391,260.801,887.101,811.101,346.571,404.711,465.371,528.641,594.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 611.20621.10645.40686.60716747.63779.91813.58848.71885.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,097.80422.10539.201,416.709841,008.261,051.791,097.201,144.581,194
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 90.40100.90113.30112.95116.54121.58126.83132.30138.01143.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,169.303,5363,5223,4274,3674,101.214,278.294,463.024,655.734,856.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,174.801,416.401,336.501,480.501,8841,653.451,724.841,799.321,877.011,958.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -632.20-817.10-1,036.70-898.80-1,021-1,000.30-1,043.49-1,088.55-1,135.55-1,184.58
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 165
Beta 0.701
Diluted Shares Outstanding 229.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.051
Total Debt 15,114
Total Equity 37,867.50
Total Capital 52,981.50
Debt Weighting 28.53
Equity Weighting 71.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,245.5022,823.3023,610.8025,509.3026,321.2027,457.7128,643.2929,880.0631,170.2432,516.12
EBITDA 2,617-317.901,906.202,573.702,527.102,094.202,184.622,278.952,377.352,480
EBIT 2,005.80-9391,260.801,887.101,811.101,346.571,404.711,465.371,528.641,594.64
Tax Rate -0.60%-21.53%24.73%22.87%18.64%8.82%8.82%8.82%8.82%8.82%
EBIAT 2,017.92-1,141.15949.011,455.511,473.451,227.771,280.791,336.091,393.781,453.96
Depreciation 611.20621.10645.40686.60716747.63779.91813.58848.71885.36
Accounts Receivable --10.50-12.400.35-3.59-5.03-5.25-5.48-5.71-5.96
Inventories --366.701495-940265.79-177.08-184.73-192.71-201.03
Accounts Payable -241.60-79.90144403.50-230.5571.3974.4877.6981.05
Capital Expenditure -632.20-817.10-1,036.70-898.80-1,021-1,000.30-1,043.49-1,088.55-1,135.55-1,184.58
UFCF 1,996.92-1,472.75479.411,482.66628.351,005.31906.27945.40986.221,028.80
WACC
PV UFCF 961.10828.31826.08823.85821.63
SUM PV UFCF 4,260.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,049.38
Terminal Value 40,360.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 32,233.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 36,493.98
Net Debt 14,130
Equity Value 22,363.98
Shares Outstanding 229.50
Equity Value Per Share 97.45