Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
$157.21
+1.70 (+1.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,245.50 | 22,823.30 | 23,610.80 | 25,509.30 | 26,321.20 | 27,457.71 | 28,643.29 | 29,880.06 | 31,170.24 | 32,516.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 2,617 | -317.90 | 1,906.20 | 2,573.70 | 2,527.10 | 2,094.20 | 2,184.62 | 2,278.95 | 2,377.35 | 2,480 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 2,005.80 | -939 | 1,260.80 | 1,887.10 | 1,811.10 | 1,346.57 | 1,404.71 | 1,465.37 | 1,528.64 | 1,594.64 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 611.20 | 621.10 | 645.40 | 686.60 | 716 | 747.63 | 779.91 | 813.58 | 848.71 | 885.36 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,097.80 | 422.10 | 539.20 | 1,416.70 | 984 | 1,008.26 | 1,051.79 | 1,097.20 | 1,144.58 | 1,194 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 90.40 | 100.90 | 113.30 | 112.95 | 116.54 | 121.58 | 126.83 | 132.30 | 138.01 | 143.97 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,169.30 | 3,536 | 3,522 | 3,427 | 4,367 | 4,101.21 | 4,278.29 | 4,463.02 | 4,655.73 | 4,856.76 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,174.80 | 1,416.40 | 1,336.50 | 1,480.50 | 1,884 | 1,653.45 | 1,724.84 | 1,799.32 | 1,877.01 | 1,958.06 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -632.20 | -817.10 | -1,036.70 | -898.80 | -1,021 | -1,000.30 | -1,043.49 | -1,088.55 | -1,135.55 | -1,184.58 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 157.21 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.703 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 229.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 18.64 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.96% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.442 |
Total Debt | 15,114 |
Total Equity | 36,079.69 |
Total Capital | 51,193.69 |
Debt Weighting | 29.52 |
Equity Weighting | 70.48 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,245.50 | 22,823.30 | 23,610.80 | 25,509.30 | 26,321.20 | 27,457.71 | 28,643.29 | 29,880.06 | 31,170.24 | 32,516.12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 2,617 | -317.90 | 1,906.20 | 2,573.70 | 2,527.10 | 2,094.20 | 2,184.62 | 2,278.95 | 2,377.35 | 2,480 |
EBIT | 2,005.80 | -939 | 1,260.80 | 1,887.10 | 1,811.10 | 1,346.57 | 1,404.71 | 1,465.37 | 1,528.64 | 1,594.64 |
Tax Rate | -0.60% | -21.53% | 24.73% | 22.87% | 18.64% | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% |
EBIAT | 2,017.92 | -1,141.15 | 949.01 | 1,455.51 | 1,473.45 | 1,227.77 | 1,280.79 | 1,336.09 | 1,393.78 | 1,453.96 |
Depreciation | 611.20 | 621.10 | 645.40 | 686.60 | 716 | 747.63 | 779.91 | 813.58 | 848.71 | 885.36 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -10.50 | -12.40 | 0.35 | -3.59 | -5.03 | -5.25 | -5.48 | -5.71 | -5.96 |
Inventories | - | -366.70 | 14 | 95 | -940 | 265.79 | -177.08 | -184.73 | -192.71 | -201.03 |
Accounts Payable | - | 241.60 | -79.90 | 144 | 403.50 | -230.55 | 71.39 | 74.48 | 77.69 | 81.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -632.20 | -817.10 | -1,036.70 | -898.80 | -1,021 | -1,000.30 | -1,043.49 | -1,088.55 | -1,135.55 | -1,184.58 |
UFCF | 1,996.92 | -1,472.75 | 479.41 | 1,482.66 | 628.35 | 1,005.31 | 906.27 | 945.40 | 986.22 | 1,028.80 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 959.09 | 824.84 | 820.89 | 816.95 | 813.04 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 4,234.80 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 4.82 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,049.38 |
Terminal Value | 37,212.05 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 29,407.82 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 33,642.62 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 14,130 |
Equity Value | 19,512.62 |
Shares Outstanding | 229.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | 85.02 |