Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN)

$1.83

+0.12 (+7.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -16.28 | 1.83 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256.58176.32235.31140.73147.75135.55124.36114.09104.6796.03
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -78.7081.60-82.23-145.93-315.02-91.16-83.63-76.72-70.39-64.58
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.76-3.99-30.19-38.74-2.52-12.63-11.58-10.63-9.75-8.94
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -84.4777.61-112.42-184.67-317.54-103.78-95.21-87.35-80.14-73.52

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.83
Beta 0.696
Diluted Shares Outstanding 97.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.12%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.444
Total Debt 80.61
Total Equity 178.06
Total Capital 258.68
Debt Weighting 31.16
Equity Weighting 68.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256.58176.32235.31140.73147.75135.55124.36114.09104.6796.03
Operating Cash Flow -78.7081.60-82.23-145.93-315.02-91.16-83.63-76.72-70.39-64.58
Capital Expenditure -5.76-3.99-30.19-38.74-2.52-12.63-11.58-10.63-9.75-8.94
Free Cash Flow -84.4777.61-112.42-184.67-317.54-103.78-95.21-87.35-80.14-73.52
WACC
PV LFCF -71.49-61.63-53.14-45.81-39.50
SUM PV LFCF -370.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) -74.99
Terminal Value -1,700.49
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,246.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,616.92
Net Debt -33.07
Equity Value -1,583.85
Shares Outstanding 97.30
Equity Value Per Share -16.28