Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN)

$1.83

+0.12 (+7.02%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -29.40 | 1.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256.58176.32235.31140.73147.75135.55124.36114.09104.6796.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -73.77-186.33-288.53-282.82-281.82-175.88-161.35-148.03-135.81-124.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -95.22-208.37-303.34-293.43-291.75-187.10-171.65-157.48-144.48-132.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.4522.0514.8110.609.9311.2310.309.458.677.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 533.76686.54405.19422.01235.59333.16305.65280.41257.26236.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.4541.8817.4016.3012.5516.8915.5014.2213.0511.97
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6.8916.5331.0140.4441.5722.2620.4218.7317.1915.77
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.0924.7926.1030.7617.9616.6815.3014.0412.8811.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.76-3.99-30.19-38.74-2.52-12.63-11.58-10.63-9.75-8.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.83
Beta 0.696
Diluted Shares Outstanding 97.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.12%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.444
Total Debt 80.61
Total Equity 178.06
Total Capital 258.68
Debt Weighting 31.16
Equity Weighting 68.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 256.58176.32235.31140.73147.75135.55124.36114.09104.6796.03
EBITDA -73.77-186.33-288.53-282.82-281.82-175.88-161.35-148.03-135.81-124.59
EBIT -95.22-208.37-303.34-293.43-291.75-187.10-171.65-157.48-144.48-132.55
Tax Rate -0.43%-0.19%-0.12%-0.12%0.92%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%
EBIAT -95.63-208.77-303.70-293.79-289.07-187.08-171.63-157.46-144.46-132.53
Depreciation 21.4522.0514.8110.609.9311.2310.309.458.677.95
Accounts Receivable --13.4324.481.103.75-4.341.401.281.171.08
Inventories --9.64-14.48-9.42-1.1319.311.841.691.551.42
Accounts Payable -18.701.314.66-12.80-1.28-1.38-1.26-1.16-1.06
Capital Expenditure -5.76-3.99-30.19-38.74-2.52-12.63-11.58-10.63-9.75-8.94
UFCF -79.94-195.09-307.77-325.58-291.84-174.79-171.06-156.94-143.98-132.09
WACC
PV UFCF -164.26-151.07-130.25-112.30-96.82
SUM PV UFCF -654.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) -134.73
Terminal Value -3,055.12
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,239.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,894.02
Net Debt -33.07
Equity Value -2,860.95
Shares Outstanding 97.30
Equity Value Per Share -29.40