Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

$11.75

+0.09 (+0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 108.02 | 11.75 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 381.04274.48338.14441.73282.64332.19332.31332.44332.57332.69
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 232.6478.81220.90332.93213.24208.54208.62208.70208.78208.86

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.75
Beta 0.680
Diluted Shares Outstanding 120.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 59.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.578
Total Debt 3,062.56
Total Equity 1,418.60
Total Capital 4,481.16
Debt Weighting 68.34
Equity Weighting 31.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
Operating Cash Flow 381.04274.48338.14441.73282.64332.19332.31332.44332.57332.69
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
Free Cash Flow 232.6478.81220.90332.93213.24208.54208.62208.70208.78208.86
WACC
PV LFCF 202195.73189.66183.78178.08
SUM PV LFCF 949.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 213.04
Terminal Value 17,180.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 14,648.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,597.71
Net Debt 2,556.07
Equity Value 13,041.64
Shares Outstanding 120.73
Equity Value Per Share 108.02