Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

$11.75

+0.09 (+0.77%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 108.02 | 11.75 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,263.42	2,331.39	2,477.92	2,350.10	2,256.61	2,257.47	2,258.32	2,259.18	2,260.04	2,260.89
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	381.04	274.48	338.14	441.73	282.64	332.19	332.31	332.44	332.57	332.69
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-148.41	-195.67	-117.24	-108.80	-69.39	-123.64	-123.69	-123.74	-123.79	-123.83
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	232.64	78.81	220.90	332.93	213.24	208.54	208.62	208.70	208.78	208.86

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.75
Beta	0.680
Diluted Shares Outstanding	120.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	59.85
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.578
Total Debt	3,062.56
Total Equity	1,418.60
Total Capital	4,481.16
Debt Weighting	68.34
Equity Weighting	31.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,263.42	2,331.39	2,477.92	2,350.10	2,256.61	2,257.47	2,258.32	2,259.18	2,260.04	2,260.89
Operating Cash Flow	381.04	274.48	338.14	441.73	282.64	332.19	332.31	332.44	332.57	332.69
Capital Expenditure	-148.41	-195.67	-117.24	-108.80	-69.39	-123.64	-123.69	-123.74	-123.79	-123.83
Free Cash Flow	232.64	78.81	220.90	332.93	213.24	208.54	208.62	208.70	208.78	208.86
WACC
PV LFCF						202	195.73	189.66	183.78	178.08
SUM PV LFCF										949.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	3.24
Free cash flow (t + 1)	213.04
Terminal Value	17,180.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	14,648.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	15,597.71
Net Debt	2,556.07
Equity Value	13,041.64
Shares Outstanding	120.73
Equity Value Per Share	108.02