Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

$11.85

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 156.04 | 11.85 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 436.52435.74465.10395.01464.79425.08425.25425.41425.57425.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 312.22309.31334.27260.33329.61299.05299.16299.28299.39299.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 124.30126.43130.82134.68135.18126.04126.08126.13126.18126.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 81.3831.2632.46283.52506.49184.01184.08184.15184.22184.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 408.06461.06442.18368.95372.08396.58396.73396.88397.03397.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 96.4794.94100.3386.9264.3085.4785.5185.5485.5785.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.85
Beta 0.547
Diluted Shares Outstanding 120.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 59.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.096
Total Debt 3,062.56
Total Equity 1,430.67
Total Capital 4,493.23
Debt Weighting 68.16
Equity Weighting 31.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
EBITDA 436.52435.74465.10395.01464.79425.08425.25425.41425.57425.73
EBIT 312.22309.31334.27260.33329.61299.05299.16299.28299.39299.50
Tax Rate 3.75%2.83%3.99%8.94%59.85%15.87%15.87%15.87%15.87%15.87%
EBIAT 300.52300.55320.94237.06132.34251.58251.68251.77251.87251.97
Depreciation 124.30126.43130.82134.68135.18126.04126.08126.13126.18126.23
Accounts Receivable --5318.8873.23-3.13-24.50-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.15
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --1.525.38-13.41-22.6321.180.030.030.030.03
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
UFCF 276.41176.79358.78322.76172.36250.65253.95254.05254.15254.24
WACC
PV UFCF 243.12238.91231.82224.93218.25
SUM PV UFCF 1,157.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) 259.33
Terminal Value 23,575.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,237.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,394.77
Net Debt 2,556.07
Equity Value 18,838.71
Shares Outstanding 120.73
Equity Value Per Share 156.04