Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)
$4.05
+0.07 (+1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 4,180.46 | 4,679 | 4,723 | 9,179 | 6,924 | 9,239.02 | 11,010.56 | 13,121.79 | 15,637.84 | 18,636.34 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | -731.24 | -357 | 1,113 | 4,037 | 710 | 1,064.37 | 1,268.46 | 1,511.69 | 1,801.55 | 2,146.99 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.05 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.816 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 616 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.57 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 22.27% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.234 |
Total Debt | 3,205 |
Total Equity | 2,494.80 |
Total Capital | 5,699.80 |
Debt Weighting | 56.23 |
Equity Weighting | 43.77 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 4,180.46 | 4,679 | 4,723 | 9,179 | 6,924 | 9,239.02 | 11,010.56 | 13,121.79 | 15,637.84 | 18,636.34 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
Free Cash Flow | -731.24 | -357 | 1,113 | 4,037 | 710 | 1,064.37 | 1,268.46 | 1,511.69 | 1,801.55 | 2,146.99 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 795.25 | 819.20 | 843.88 | 869.29 | 895.48 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 4,885.70 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 15.69 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,189.93 |
Terminal Value | 15,996.53 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,718.75 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 12,604.44 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 757 |
Equity Value | 11,847.44 |
Shares Outstanding | 616 |
Equity Value Per Share | 19.23 |