Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

$4.56

-0.01 (-0.22%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -104.53 | 4.56 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	21,854.31	26,912	29,245	41,733	42,645	50,822.01	60,566.93	72,180.40	86,020.70	102,514.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-1,559.05	1,883	3,546	10,883	-380	3,778.60	4,503.13	5,366.58	6,395.60	7,621.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-4,318.43	-2,171	38	7,006	-5,601.39	-2,443.97	-2,912.60	-3,471.08	-4,136.64	-4,929.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2,759.38	4,054	3,508	3,877	5,221.39	6,222.57	7,415.72	8,837.66	10,532.24	12,551.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	703.64	993	6,357	2,819	2,448	4,181.82	4,983.67	5,939.26	7,078.09	8,435.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,062.36	997	1,230	1,521	1,682	2,069.51	2,466.34	2,939.25	3,502.83	4,174.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,752.21	1,967	2,421	2,542	2,818	3,690.10	4,397.66	5,240.90	6,245.82	7,443.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	593.27	763	706	1,269	4,494	2,189.70	2,609.57	3,109.94	3,706.26	4,416.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,911.70	-5,036	-3,610	-5,142	-6,214	-8,174.64	-9,742.10	-11,610.11	-13,836.30	-16,489.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 4.56
Beta	0.816
Diluted Shares Outstanding	616
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	22.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.638
Total Debt	3,205
Total Equity	2,808.96
Total Capital	6,013.96
Debt Weighting	53.29
Equity Weighting	46.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	21,854.31	26,912	29,245	41,733	42,645	50,822.01	60,566.93	72,180.40	86,020.70	102,514.83
EBITDA	-1,559.05	1,883	3,546	10,883	-380	3,778.60	4,503.13	5,366.58	6,395.60	7,621.94
EBIT	-4,318.43	-2,171	38	7,006	-5,601.39	-2,443.97	-2,912.60	-3,471.08	-4,136.64	-4,929.83
Tax Rate	5.31%	5.06%	-47.56%	20.29%	0.57%	-3.27%	-3.27%	-3.27%	-3.27%	-3.27%
EBIAT	-4,089.14	-2,061.11	56.07	5,584.38	-5,569.62	-2,523.81	-3,007.74	-3,584.46	-4,271.77	-5,090.86
Depreciation	2,759.38	4,054	3,508	3,877	5,221.39	6,222.57	7,415.72	8,837.66	10,532.24	12,551.76
Accounts Receivable	-	65.36	-233	-291	-161	-387.51	-396.82	-472.91	-563.59	-671.65
Inventories	-	-214.79	-454	-121	-276	-872.10	-707.56	-843.23	-1,004.92	-1,197.61
Accounts Payable	-	169.73	-57	563	3,225	-2,304.30	419.87	500.37	596.32	710.66
Capital Expenditure	-4,911.70	-5,036	-3,610	-5,142	-6,214	-8,174.64	-9,742.10	-11,610.11	-13,836.30	-16,489.35
UFCF	-6,241.45	-3,022.80	-789.93	4,470.38	-3,774.23	-8,039.80	-6,018.63	-7,172.68	-8,548.01	-10,187.06
WACC
PV UFCF						-6,964.48	-4,516.32	-4,662.43	-4,813.27	-4,968.98
SUM PV UFCF										-25,925.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	15.44
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-10,390.80
Terminal Value	-77,312.49
Present Value of Terminal Value	-37,711

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-63,636.48
Net Debt	757
Equity Value	-64,393.48
Shares Outstanding	616
Equity Value Per Share	-104.53