Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)
$4.56
-0.01 (-0.22%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -1,559.05 | 1,883 | 3,546 | 10,883 | -380 | 3,778.60 | 4,503.13 | 5,366.58 | 6,395.60 | 7,621.94 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -4,318.43 | -2,171 | 38 | 7,006 | -5,601.39 | -2,443.97 | -2,912.60 | -3,471.08 | -4,136.64 | -4,929.83 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2,759.38 | 4,054 | 3,508 | 3,877 | 5,221.39 | 6,222.57 | 7,415.72 | 8,837.66 | 10,532.24 | 12,551.76 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 703.64 | 993 | 6,357 | 2,819 | 2,448 | 4,181.82 | 4,983.67 | 5,939.26 | 7,078.09 | 8,435.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,062.36 | 997 | 1,230 | 1,521 | 1,682 | 2,069.51 | 2,466.34 | 2,939.25 | 3,502.83 | 4,174.49 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 1,752.21 | 1,967 | 2,421 | 2,542 | 2,818 | 3,690.10 | 4,397.66 | 5,240.90 | 6,245.82 | 7,443.43 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 593.27 | 763 | 706 | 1,269 | 4,494 | 2,189.70 | 2,609.57 | 3,109.94 | 3,706.26 | 4,416.92 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.56 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.816 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 616 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.57 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 22.27% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.638 |
Total Debt | 3,205 |
Total Equity | 2,808.96 |
Total Capital | 6,013.96 |
Debt Weighting | 53.29 |
Equity Weighting | 46.71 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -1,559.05 | 1,883 | 3,546 | 10,883 | -380 | 3,778.60 | 4,503.13 | 5,366.58 | 6,395.60 | 7,621.94 |
EBIT | -4,318.43 | -2,171 | 38 | 7,006 | -5,601.39 | -2,443.97 | -2,912.60 | -3,471.08 | -4,136.64 | -4,929.83 |
Tax Rate | 5.31% | 5.06% | -47.56% | 20.29% | 0.57% | -3.27% | -3.27% | -3.27% | -3.27% | -3.27% |
EBIAT | -4,089.14 | -2,061.11 | 56.07 | 5,584.38 | -5,569.62 | -2,523.81 | -3,007.74 | -3,584.46 | -4,271.77 | -5,090.86 |
Depreciation | 2,759.38 | 4,054 | 3,508 | 3,877 | 5,221.39 | 6,222.57 | 7,415.72 | 8,837.66 | 10,532.24 | 12,551.76 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 65.36 | -233 | -291 | -161 | -387.51 | -396.82 | -472.91 | -563.59 | -671.65 |
Inventories | - | -214.79 | -454 | -121 | -276 | -872.10 | -707.56 | -843.23 | -1,004.92 | -1,197.61 |
Accounts Payable | - | 169.73 | -57 | 563 | 3,225 | -2,304.30 | 419.87 | 500.37 | 596.32 | 710.66 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
UFCF | -6,241.45 | -3,022.80 | -789.93 | 4,470.38 | -3,774.23 | -8,039.80 | -6,018.63 | -7,172.68 | -8,548.01 | -10,187.06 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -6,964.48 | -4,516.32 | -4,662.43 | -4,813.27 | -4,968.98 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -25,925.48 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 15.44 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -10,390.80 |
Terminal Value | -77,312.49 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -37,711 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -63,636.48 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 757 |
Equity Value | -64,393.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 616 |
Equity Value Per Share | -104.53 |