Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

$4.05

+0.07 (+1.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -102.51 | 4.05 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,854.3126,91229,24541,73342,64550,822.0160,566.9372,180.4086,020.70102,514.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1,559.051,8833,54610,883-3803,778.604,503.135,366.586,395.607,621.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -4,318.43-2,171387,006-5,601.39-2,443.97-2,912.60-3,471.08-4,136.64-4,929.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,759.384,0543,5083,8775,221.396,222.577,415.728,837.6610,532.2412,551.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 703.649936,3572,8192,4484,181.824,983.675,939.267,078.098,435.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,062.369971,2301,5211,6822,069.512,466.342,939.253,502.834,174.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,752.211,9672,4212,5422,8183,690.104,397.665,240.906,245.827,443.43
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 593.277637061,2694,4942,189.702,609.573,109.943,706.264,416.92
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,911.70-5,036-3,610-5,142-6,214-8,174.64-9,742.10-11,610.11-13,836.30-16,489.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.05
Beta 0.816
Diluted Shares Outstanding 616
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.57
After-tax Cost of Debt 22.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.234
Total Debt 3,205
Total Equity 2,494.80
Total Capital 5,699.80
Debt Weighting 56.23
Equity Weighting 43.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,854.3126,91229,24541,73342,64550,822.0160,566.9372,180.4086,020.70102,514.83
EBITDA -1,559.051,8833,54610,883-3803,778.604,503.135,366.586,395.607,621.94
EBIT -4,318.43-2,171387,006-5,601.39-2,443.97-2,912.60-3,471.08-4,136.64-4,929.83
Tax Rate 5.31%5.06%-47.56%20.29%0.57%-3.27%-3.27%-3.27%-3.27%-3.27%
EBIAT -4,089.14-2,061.1156.075,584.38-5,569.62-2,523.81-3,007.74-3,584.46-4,271.77-5,090.86
Depreciation 2,759.384,0543,5083,8775,221.396,222.577,415.728,837.6610,532.2412,551.76
Accounts Receivable -65.36-233-291-161-387.51-396.82-472.91-563.59-671.65
Inventories --214.79-454-121-276-872.10-707.56-843.23-1,004.92-1,197.61
Accounts Payable -169.73-575633,225-2,304.30419.87500.37596.32710.66
Capital Expenditure -4,911.70-5,036-3,610-5,142-6,214-8,174.64-9,742.10-11,610.11-13,836.30-16,489.35
UFCF -6,241.45-3,022.80-789.934,470.38-3,774.23-8,039.80-6,018.63-7,172.68-8,548.01-10,187.06
WACC
PV UFCF -6,949.43-4,496.82-4,632.27-4,771.79-4,915.52
SUM PV UFCF -25,765.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) -10,390.80
Terminal Value -75,900.65
Present Value of Terminal Value -36,624.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -62,389.89
Net Debt 757
Equity Value -63,146.89
Shares Outstanding 616
Equity Value Per Share -102.51