Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

$23.5

+0.99 (+4.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.17 | 23.5 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,881.954,510.854,504.574,583.665,457.705,636.225,820.576,010.966,207.576,410.62
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -27.61-27.32180.98288.50485203.21209.86216.72223.81231.13
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -297.16-152.41-116.35-121.60-77.13-181.65-187.60-193.73-200.07-206.61
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -324.77-179.7364.63166.90407.8721.5622.2622.9923.7424.52

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 23.5
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 349.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -91.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.115
Total Debt 2,854.60
Total Equity 8,203.85
Total Capital 11,058.45
Debt Weighting 25.81
Equity Weighting 74.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,881.954,510.854,504.574,583.665,457.705,636.225,820.576,010.966,207.576,410.62
Operating Cash Flow -27.61-27.32180.98288.50485203.21209.86216.72223.81231.13
Capital Expenditure -297.16-152.41-116.35-121.60-77.13-181.65-187.60-193.73-200.07-206.61
Free Cash Flow -324.77-179.7364.63166.90407.8721.5622.2622.9923.7424.52
WACC
PV LFCF 18.1217.1616.2515.3914.57
SUM PV LFCF 88.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25.01
Terminal Value 354.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 229.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 318.46
Net Debt 2,123.20
Equity Value -1,804.74
Shares Outstanding 349.10
Equity Value Per Share -5.17