Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Methanex Corporation (MEOH)
$40.16
+2.47 (+6.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,060.64 | 4,482.70 | 3,283.51 | 2,649.96 | 4,414.56 | 5,154.06 | 6,017.44 | 7,025.45 | 8,202.32 | 9,576.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 787.74 | 980.21 | 515.43 | 461.08 | 993.93 | 1,063.96 | 1,242.19 | 1,450.28 | 1,693.22 | 1,976.86 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -103.17 | -244.48 | -323.86 | -341.82 | -245.44 | -382.91 | -447.05 | -521.94 | -609.37 | -711.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 684.57 | 735.73 | 191.57 | 119.27 | 748.49 | 681.05 | 795.14 | 928.34 | 1,083.85 | 1,265.41 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 40.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.075 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 76.24 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.61 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.921 |
| Total Debt | 2,875.29 |
| Total Equity | 3,061.95 |
| Total Capital | 5,937.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 48.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 51.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,060.64 | 4,482.70 | 3,283.51 | 2,649.96 | 4,414.56 | 5,154.06 | 6,017.44 | 7,025.45 | 8,202.32 | 9,576.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 787.74 | 980.21 | 515.43 | 461.08 | 993.93 | 1,063.96 | 1,242.19 | 1,450.28 | 1,693.22 | 1,976.86 |
| Capital Expenditure | -103.17 | -244.48 | -323.86 | -341.82 | -245.44 | -382.91 | -447.05 | -521.94 | -609.37 | -711.45 |
| Free Cash Flow | 684.57 | 735.73 | 191.57 | 119.27 | 748.49 | 681.05 | 795.14 | 928.34 | 1,083.85 | 1,265.41 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 628.16 | 676.43 | 728.41 | 784.39 | 844.66 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,662.06 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.42 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,290.72 |
| Terminal Value | 20,104.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,419.89 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 17,081.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,943.22 |
| Equity Value | 15,138.73 |
| Shares Outstanding | 76.24 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 198.56 |