Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

$38.21

-0.02 (-0.05%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 85.60 | 38.21 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,060.64	4,482.70	3,283.51	2,649.96	4,414.56	5,154.06	6,017.44	7,025.45	8,202.32	9,576.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	739.10	1,062.19	560.79	303.18	1,100.28	1,044.09	1,218.99	1,423.19	1,661.59	1,939.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	506.88	816.89	216.67	-53.95	737.19	577.73	674.51	787.50	919.42	1,073.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	232.22	245.30	344.13	357.13	363.08	466.36	544.48	635.69	742.17	866.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	375.48	256.08	416.76	833.84	932.07	858.18	1,001.94	1,169.78	1,365.73	1,594.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	536.64	514.57	488.72	412	551.37	741.50	865.71	1,010.73	1,180.05	1,377.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	304.46	387.96	281.05	308.70	459.56	507.37	592.37	691.60	807.45	942.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-103.17	-244.48	-323.86	-341.82	-245.44	-382.91	-447.05	-521.94	-609.37	-711.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 38.21
Beta	2.075
Diluted Shares Outstanding	76.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.61
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.685
Total Debt	2,875.29
Total Equity	2,913.27
Total Capital	5,788.57
Debt Weighting	49.67
Equity Weighting	50.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	3,060.64	4,482.70	3,283.51	2,649.96	4,414.56	5,154.06	6,017.44	7,025.45	8,202.32	9,576.33
EBITDA	739.10	1,062.19	560.79	303.18	1,100.28	1,044.09	1,218.99	1,423.19	1,661.59	1,939.93
EBIT	506.88	816.89	216.67	-53.95	737.19	577.73	674.51	787.50	919.42	1,073.44
Tax Rate	32.86%	29.88%	27.37%	16.41%	27.61%	26.83%	26.83%	26.83%	26.83%	26.83%
EBIAT	340.30	572.78	157.37	-45.09	533.65	422.74	493.56	576.24	672.77	785.47
Depreciation	232.22	245.30	344.13	357.13	363.08	466.36	544.48	635.69	742.17	866.50
Accounts Receivable	-	22.07	25.85	76.72	-139.37	-190.13	-124.21	-145.02	-169.31	-197.68
Inventories	-	-83.49	106.91	-27.64	-150.86	-47.82	-84.99	-99.23	-115.85	-135.26
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Expenditure	-103.17	-244.48	-323.86	-341.82	-245.44	-382.91	-447.05	-521.94	-609.37	-711.45
UFCF	469.35	512.18	310.39	19.30	361.07	268.24	381.78	445.73	520.40	607.57
WACC
PV UFCF						247.93	326.17	351.98	379.83	409.89
SUM PV UFCF										1,715.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.19
Free cash flow (t + 1)	619.73
Terminal Value	10,011.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	6,754.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	8,469.98
Net Debt	1,943.22
Equity Value	6,526.75
Shares Outstanding	76.24
Equity Value Per Share	85.60