Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Methanex Corporation (MEOH)

$38.21

-0.02 (-0.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 85.60 | 38.21 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,060.644,482.703,283.512,649.964,414.565,154.066,017.447,025.458,202.329,576.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 739.101,062.19560.79303.181,100.281,044.091,218.991,423.191,661.591,939.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 506.88816.89216.67-53.95737.19577.73674.51787.50919.421,073.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 232.22245.30344.13357.13363.08466.36544.48635.69742.17866.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 375.48256.08416.76833.84932.07858.181,001.941,169.781,365.731,594.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 536.64514.57488.72412551.37741.50865.711,010.731,180.051,377.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 304.46387.96281.05308.70459.56507.37592.37691.60807.45942.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -103.17-244.48-323.86-341.82-245.44-382.91-447.05-521.94-609.37-711.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.21
Beta 2.075
Diluted Shares Outstanding 76.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.685
Total Debt 2,875.29
Total Equity 2,913.27
Total Capital 5,788.57
Debt Weighting 49.67
Equity Weighting 50.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,060.644,482.703,283.512,649.964,414.565,154.066,017.447,025.458,202.329,576.33
EBITDA 739.101,062.19560.79303.181,100.281,044.091,218.991,423.191,661.591,939.93
EBIT 506.88816.89216.67-53.95737.19577.73674.51787.50919.421,073.44
Tax Rate 32.86%29.88%27.37%16.41%27.61%26.83%26.83%26.83%26.83%26.83%
EBIAT 340.30572.78157.37-45.09533.65422.74493.56576.24672.77785.47
Depreciation 232.22245.30344.13357.13363.08466.36544.48635.69742.17866.50
Accounts Receivable -22.0725.8576.72-139.37-190.13-124.21-145.02-169.31-197.68
Inventories --83.49106.91-27.64-150.86-47.82-84.99-99.23-115.85-135.26
Accounts Payable ----------
Capital Expenditure -103.17-244.48-323.86-341.82-245.44-382.91-447.05-521.94-609.37-711.45
UFCF 469.35512.18310.3919.30361.07268.24381.78445.73520.40607.57
WACC
PV UFCF 247.93326.17351.98379.83409.89
SUM PV UFCF 1,715.79

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 619.73
Terminal Value 10,011.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,754.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,469.98
Net Debt 1,943.22
Equity Value 6,526.75
Shares Outstanding 76.24
Equity Value Per Share 85.60