Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (MMP)

$48.17

+1.67 (+3.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 47.86 | 48.17 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,507.662,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.102,806.902,882.692,960.533,040.473,122.56
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,108.681,352.951,321.181,107.381,196.201,290.551,325.391,361.181,397.941,435.68
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -558.67-552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-561.18-576.33-591.89-607.88-624.29
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 550.01800.69377.19667.801,047.60729.37749.06769.29790.06811.39

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 48.17
Beta 0.928
Diluted Shares Outstanding 214.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -5.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.084
Total Debt 5,143.70
Total Equity 10,313.20
Total Capital 15,456.90
Debt Weighting 33.28
Equity Weighting 66.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,507.662,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.102,806.902,882.692,960.533,040.473,122.56
Operating Cash Flow 1,108.681,352.951,321.181,107.381,196.201,290.551,325.391,361.181,397.941,435.68
Capital Expenditure -558.67-552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-561.18-576.33-591.89-607.88-624.29
Free Cash Flow 550.01800.69377.19667.801,047.60729.37749.06769.29790.06811.39
WACC
PV LFCF 682.55655.98630.44605.90582.31
SUM PV LFCF 3,157.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 827.62
Terminal Value 17,029.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,221.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,378.52
Net Debt 5,130.70
Equity Value 10,247.82
Shares Outstanding 214.10
Equity Value Per Share 47.86