Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (MMP)

$69

+0.46 (+0.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 54.15 | 69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.103,200.403,321.863,447.943,578.793,714.623,855.59
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,183.721,195.161,029.871,0861,0891,341.191,392.091,444.921,499.761,556.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 918.65949.03771.20858.10796.201,031.971,071.131,111.791,153.981,197.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 265.08246.13258.68227.90292.80309.22320.95333.14345.78358.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 218.2858.0313.042269.9172.5675.3278.1781.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 129.17149.33146.21169.80264.30202.88210.58218.57226.87235.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 185.73184.40167.39281.10356.20276.65287.15298.04309.36321.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 138.73150.99100.02109.50108.20145.83151.37157.11163.07169.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-175.30-552.51-573.48-595.25-617.84-641.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 69
Beta 0.910
Diluted Shares Outstanding 209.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -20.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.456
Total Debt 5,162.90
Total Equity 14,462.40
Total Capital 19,625.30
Debt Weighting 26.31
Equity Weighting 73.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.103,200.403,321.863,447.943,578.793,714.623,855.59
EBITDA 1,183.721,195.161,029.871,0861,0891,341.191,392.091,444.921,499.761,556.68
EBIT 918.65949.03771.20858.10796.201,031.971,071.131,111.791,153.981,197.78
Tax Rate 0.01%0.14%0.36%-5.07%-20.25%-4.96%-4.96%-4.96%-4.96%-4.96%
EBIAT 918.60947.69768.44901.62957.401,083.181,124.291,166.961,211.251,257.22
Depreciation 265.08246.13258.68227.90292.80309.22320.95333.14345.78358.90
Accounts Receivable --20.163.12-23.59-94.5061.42-7.70-7.99-8.30-8.61
Inventories -1.3417.01-113.71-75.1079.55-10.50-10.90-11.31-11.74
Accounts Payable -12.26-50.979.48-1.3037.635.535.745.966.19
Capital Expenditure -552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-175.30-552.51-573.48-595.25-617.84-641.29
UFCF 631.42243.27556.70853.109041,018.49859.10891.70925.55960.67
WACC
PV UFCF 948.40744.93719.99695.89672.60
SUM PV UFCF 3,781.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 979.89
Terminal Value 18,179.71
Present Value of Terminal Value 12,728.22

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 16,510.04
Net Debt 5,160.90
Equity Value 11,349.14
Shares Outstanding 209.60
Equity Value Per Share 54.15