Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (MMP)

$51.64

+0.81 (+1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 83.06 | 51.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,507.662,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.102,806.902,882.692,960.533,040.473,122.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,265.121,802.601,470.261,301.441,438.601,540.211,581.801,624.511,668.381,713.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,068.491,537.521,224.131,042.761,210.701,286.271,3211,356.671,393.311,430.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 196.63265.08246.13258.68227.90253.94260.80267.84275.07282.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 176.07218.2858.0313.0413100.39103.11105.89108.75111.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 153.34129.17149.33146.21140.70153.42157.56161.82166.19170.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 182.34185.73184.40167.39158.20186.86191.90197.08202.41207.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 104.85138.73150.99100.0298125.36128.74132.22135.79139.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -558.67-552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-561.18-576.33-591.89-607.88-624.29
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.64
Beta 0.948
Diluted Shares Outstanding 214.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -5.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.323
Total Debt 5,143.70
Total Equity 11,056.12
Total Capital 16,199.82
Debt Weighting 31.75
Equity Weighting 68.25
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,507.662,826.572,727.912,427.802,733.102,806.902,882.692,960.533,040.473,122.56
EBITDA 1,265.121,802.601,470.261,301.441,438.601,540.211,581.801,624.511,668.381,713.43
EBIT 1,068.491,537.521,224.131,042.761,210.701,286.271,3211,356.671,393.311,430.93
Tax Rate 0.44%0.01%0.14%0.36%-5.07%-0.83%-0.83%-0.83%-0.83%-0.83%
EBIAT 1,063.811,537.441,222.401,039.031,272.101,296.901,331.911,367.881,404.811,442.74
Depreciation 196.63265.08246.13258.68227.90253.94260.80267.84275.07282.50
Accounts Receivable -24.17-20.163.125.51-12.72-4.14-4.25-4.37-4.49
Inventories --3.391.3417.019.19-28.66-5.05-5.18-5.32-5.47
Accounts Payable -33.8812.26-50.97-2.0227.363.383.483.573.67
Capital Expenditure -558.67-552.26-943.99-439.57-148.60-561.18-576.33-591.89-607.88-624.29
UFCF 701.771,304.92517.99827.291,364.08975.641,010.581,037.861,065.891,094.67
WACC
PV UFCF 916.95892.66861.62831.66802.74
SUM PV UFCF 4,305.63

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.40
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,116.56
Terminal Value 25,376.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,608.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 22,914.59
Net Debt 5,130.70
Equity Value 17,783.89
Shares Outstanding 214.10
Equity Value Per Share 83.06