Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Moog Inc. (MOG-A)

$70.35

-0.90 (-1.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 42.17 | 70.35 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,497.522,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.992,950.883,053.203,159.063,268.593,381.93
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 217.78102.41181.42279.18293.23228.43236.35244.54253.02261.80
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.80-94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-107.26-110.98-114.83-118.81-122.93
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 141.987.8963190.89164.49121.17125.37129.71134.21138.86

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 70.35
Beta 1.285
Diluted Shares Outstanding 32.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.869
Total Debt 903.72
Total Equity 2,272.16
Total Capital 3,175.88
Debt Weighting 28.46
Equity Weighting 71.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,497.522,709.472,904.662,884.552,851.992,950.883,053.203,159.063,268.593,381.93
Operating Cash Flow 217.78102.41181.42279.18293.23228.43236.35244.54253.02261.80
Capital Expenditure -75.80-94.52-118.42-88.28-128.73-107.26-110.98-114.83-118.81-122.93
Free Cash Flow 141.987.8963190.89164.49121.17125.37129.71134.21138.86
WACC
PV LFCF 112.32107.72103.3299.0995.04
SUM PV LFCF 517.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 141.64
Terminal Value 2,408.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,648.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,166.06
Net Debt 804.12
Equity Value 1,361.94
Shares Outstanding 32.30
Equity Value Per Share 42.17