Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)

$5.3

+0.25 (+4.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 134.14 | 5.3 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,377.052,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,728.613,192.513,735.274,370.325,113.33
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 446.67532.43871.82492.94249.47657.50769.28900.071,053.091,232.13
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -36.88-38.85-29.84-19.91-15.25-38.57-45.13-52.80-61.78-72.28
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 409.79493.58841.98473.03234.22618.93724.15847.27991.311,159.85

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.3
Beta 1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding 202.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -39.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.903
Total Debt 773.02
Total Equity 1,072.46
Total Capital 1,845.48
Debt Weighting 41.89
Equity Weighting 58.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,377.052,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,728.613,192.513,735.274,370.325,113.33
Operating Cash Flow 446.67532.43871.82492.94249.47657.50769.28900.071,053.091,232.13
Capital Expenditure -36.88-38.85-29.84-19.91-15.25-38.57-45.13-52.80-61.78-72.28
Free Cash Flow 409.79493.58841.98473.03234.22618.93724.15847.27991.311,159.85
WACC
PV LFCF 584.94646.81715.22790.87874.52
SUM PV LFCF 3,612.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,183.05
Terminal Value 31,051.13
Present Value of Terminal Value 23,412.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 27,024.64
Net Debt -118.27
Equity Value 27,142.92
Shares Outstanding 202.35
Equity Value Per Share 134.14