Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)

$5.3

+0.25 (+4.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 94.53 | 5.3 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,377.052,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,728.613,192.513,735.274,370.325,113.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 414.68610.11686.32528.68-280.44511.50598.47700.21819.26958.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 401.69571.51629.33470.08-322.78461.90540.43632.31739.81865.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.9938.6056.9958.6042.3449.6058.0367.9079.4592.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,108.561,806.822,388.051,748.831,348.892,090.282,445.662,861.453,347.943,917.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 59.43140.1283.6662.2832.8497.79114.41133.86156.62183.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 77.86114.94114.29111.90116.19135.60158.65185.62217.18254.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -36.88-38.85-29.84-19.91-15.25-38.57-45.13-52.80-61.78-72.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.3
Beta 1.274
Diluted Shares Outstanding 202.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -39.07
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.903
Total Debt 773.02
Total Equity 1,072.46
Total Capital 1,845.48
Debt Weighting 41.89
Equity Weighting 58.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,377.052,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,728.613,192.513,735.274,370.325,113.33
EBITDA 414.68610.11686.32528.68-280.44511.50598.47700.21819.26958.55
EBIT 401.69571.51629.33470.08-322.78461.90540.43632.31739.81865.59
Tax Rate 15.75%18.14%23.19%27.43%-39.07%9.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%
EBIAT 338.43467.87483.38341.14-448.91419.93491.33574.86672.60786.95
Depreciation 12.9938.6056.9958.6042.3449.6058.0367.9079.4592.95
Accounts Receivable --80.6956.4621.3829.44-64.95-16.63-19.45-22.76-26.63
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -37.08-0.65-2.394.2919.4023.0526.9731.5636.92
Capital Expenditure -36.88-38.85-29.84-19.91-15.25-38.57-45.13-52.80-61.78-72.28
UFCF 314.54424.01566.34398.81-388.09385.42510.66597.48699.06817.91
WACC
PV UFCF 364.25456.12504.36557.71616.70
SUM PV UFCF 2,499.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 834.27
Terminal Value 21,896.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,510.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,009.17
Net Debt -118.27
Equity Value 19,127.44
Shares Outstanding 202.35
Equity Value Per Share 94.53