Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)

$6.98

+0.01 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 33.53 | 6.98 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,032.672,029.482,026.302,023.122,019.942,016.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 604.88690.95534.98422.45356.30452.47451.76451.05450.34449.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 566.28633.96476.38380.12338.36415.82415.17414.52413.87413.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 38.6056.9958.6042.3417.9436.6536.5936.5336.4736.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,806.822,388.051,748.831,348.891,698.941,567.211,564.751,562.301,559.841,557.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 115.1443.1332.1332.8430.2045.3945.3145.2445.1745.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --0.340.330.290.290.290.290.290.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.94114.29111.90116.1998.7297.6297.4697.3197.1697.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -38.85-29.84-19.86-15.25-12.87-20.38-20.35-20.32-20.28-20.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.98
Beta 0.986
Diluted Shares Outstanding 202.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.228
Total Debt 442.85
Total Equity 1,412.41
Total Capital 1,855.26
Debt Weighting 23.87
Equity Weighting 76.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,145.352,722.412,403.872,332.122,032.672,029.482,026.302,023.122,019.942,016.78
EBITDA 604.88690.95534.98422.45356.30452.47451.76451.05450.34449.63
EBIT 566.28633.96476.38380.12338.36415.82415.17414.52413.87413.22
Tax Rate 18.14%23.19%27.43%-39.26%26.93%11.28%11.28%11.28%11.28%11.28%
EBIAT 463.58486.93345.72529.36247.25368.90368.32367.74367.16366.59
Depreciation 38.6056.9958.6042.3417.9436.6536.5936.5336.4736.42
Accounts Receivable -72.0110.99-0.702.63-15.180.070.070.070.07
Inventories ---0.010.0400000
Accounts Payable --0.65-2.394.29-17.47-1.11-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.15
Capital Expenditure -38.85-29.84-19.86-15.25-12.87-20.38-20.35-20.32-20.28-20.25
UFCF 463.33585.45393.06560.04237.53368.88384.48383.88383.27382.67
WACC
PV UFCF 342.98332.39308.57286.46265.94
SUM PV UFCF 1,536.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.55
Free cash flow (t + 1) 390.33
Terminal Value 7,032.91
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,887.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,423.80
Net Debt -360.05
Equity Value 6,783.86
Shares Outstanding 202.35
Equity Value Per Share 33.53