Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)
$6.98
+0.01 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,145.35 | 2,722.41 | 2,403.87 | 2,332.12 | 2,032.67 | 2,029.48 | 2,026.30 | 2,023.12 | 2,019.94 | 2,016.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 604.88 | 690.95 | 534.98 | 422.45 | 356.30 | 452.47 | 451.76 | 451.05 | 450.34 | 449.63 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 566.28 | 633.96 | 476.38 | 380.12 | 338.36 | 415.82 | 415.17 | 414.52 | 413.87 | 413.22 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 38.60 | 56.99 | 58.60 | 42.34 | 17.94 | 36.65 | 36.59 | 36.53 | 36.47 | 36.42 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,806.82 | 2,388.05 | 1,748.83 | 1,348.89 | 1,698.94 | 1,567.21 | 1,564.75 | 1,562.30 | 1,559.84 | 1,557.40 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 115.14 | 43.13 | 32.13 | 32.84 | 30.20 | 45.39 | 45.31 | 45.24 | 45.17 | 45.10 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | 0.34 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 114.94 | 114.29 | 111.90 | 116.19 | 98.72 | 97.62 | 97.46 | 97.31 | 97.16 | 97.01 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -38.85 | -29.84 | -19.86 | -15.25 | -12.87 | -20.38 | -20.35 | -20.32 | -20.28 | -20.25 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 6.98 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.986 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 202.35 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 26.93 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.21% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.228 |
Total Debt | 442.85 |
Total Equity | 1,412.41 |
Total Capital | 1,855.26 |
Debt Weighting | 23.87 |
Equity Weighting | 76.13 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 2,145.35 | 2,722.41 | 2,403.87 | 2,332.12 | 2,032.67 | 2,029.48 | 2,026.30 | 2,023.12 | 2,019.94 | 2,016.78 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 604.88 | 690.95 | 534.98 | 422.45 | 356.30 | 452.47 | 451.76 | 451.05 | 450.34 | 449.63 |
EBIT | 566.28 | 633.96 | 476.38 | 380.12 | 338.36 | 415.82 | 415.17 | 414.52 | 413.87 | 413.22 |
Tax Rate | 18.14% | 23.19% | 27.43% | -39.26% | 26.93% | 11.28% | 11.28% | 11.28% | 11.28% | 11.28% |
EBIAT | 463.58 | 486.93 | 345.72 | 529.36 | 247.25 | 368.90 | 368.32 | 367.74 | 367.16 | 366.59 |
Depreciation | 38.60 | 56.99 | 58.60 | 42.34 | 17.94 | 36.65 | 36.59 | 36.53 | 36.47 | 36.42 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 72.01 | 10.99 | -0.70 | 2.63 | -15.18 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Inventories | - | - | - | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.65 | -2.39 | 4.29 | -17.47 | -1.11 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 | -0.15 |
Capital Expenditure | -38.85 | -29.84 | -19.86 | -15.25 | -12.87 | -20.38 | -20.35 | -20.32 | -20.28 | -20.25 |
UFCF | 463.33 | 585.45 | 393.06 | 560.04 | 237.53 | 368.88 | 384.48 | 383.88 | 383.27 | 382.67 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 342.98 | 332.39 | 308.57 | 286.46 | 265.94 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,536.35 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.55 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 390.33 |
Terminal Value | 7,032.91 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,887.46 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 6,423.80 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -360.05 |
Equity Value | 6,783.86 |
Shares Outstanding | 202.35 |
Equity Value Per Share | 33.53 |