Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)

$6.98

+0.01 (+0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 33.53 | 6.98 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,145.35	2,722.41	2,403.87	2,332.12	2,032.67	2,029.48	2,026.30	2,023.12	2,019.94	2,016.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	604.88	690.95	534.98	422.45	356.30	452.47	451.76	451.05	450.34	449.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	566.28	633.96	476.38	380.12	338.36	415.82	415.17	414.52	413.87	413.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	38.60	56.99	58.60	42.34	17.94	36.65	36.59	36.53	36.47	36.42
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,806.82	2,388.05	1,748.83	1,348.89	1,698.94	1,567.21	1,564.75	1,562.30	1,559.84	1,557.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	115.14	43.13	32.13	32.84	30.20	45.39	45.31	45.24	45.17	45.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	0.34	0.33	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29	0.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	114.94	114.29	111.90	116.19	98.72	97.62	97.46	97.31	97.16	97.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-38.85	-29.84	-19.86	-15.25	-12.87	-20.38	-20.35	-20.32	-20.28	-20.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 6.98
Beta	0.986
Diluted Shares Outstanding	202.35
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	26.93
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.21%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.228
Total Debt	442.85
Total Equity	1,412.41
Total Capital	1,855.26
Debt Weighting	23.87
Equity Weighting	76.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,145.35	2,722.41	2,403.87	2,332.12	2,032.67	2,029.48	2,026.30	2,023.12	2,019.94	2,016.78
EBITDA	604.88	690.95	534.98	422.45	356.30	452.47	451.76	451.05	450.34	449.63
EBIT	566.28	633.96	476.38	380.12	338.36	415.82	415.17	414.52	413.87	413.22
Tax Rate	18.14%	23.19%	27.43%	-39.26%	26.93%	11.28%	11.28%	11.28%	11.28%	11.28%
EBIAT	463.58	486.93	345.72	529.36	247.25	368.90	368.32	367.74	367.16	366.59
Depreciation	38.60	56.99	58.60	42.34	17.94	36.65	36.59	36.53	36.47	36.42
Accounts Receivable	-	72.01	10.99	-0.70	2.63	-15.18	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.07
Inventories	-	-	-	0.01	0.04	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts Payable	-	-0.65	-2.39	4.29	-17.47	-1.11	-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.15
Capital Expenditure	-38.85	-29.84	-19.86	-15.25	-12.87	-20.38	-20.35	-20.32	-20.28	-20.25
UFCF	463.33	585.45	393.06	560.04	237.53	368.88	384.48	383.88	383.27	382.67
WACC
PV UFCF						342.98	332.39	308.57	286.46	265.94
SUM PV UFCF										1,536.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.55
Free cash flow (t + 1)	390.33
Terminal Value	7,032.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	4,887.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,423.80
Net Debt	-360.05
Equity Value	6,783.86
Shares Outstanding	202.35
Equity Value Per Share	33.53