Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Hello Group Inc. (MOMO)
$5.3
+0.25 (+4.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,377.05 | 2,145.35 | 2,722.41 | 2,403.87 | 2,332.12 | 2,728.61 | 3,192.51 | 3,735.27 | 4,370.32 | 5,113.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 414.68 | 610.11 | 686.32 | 528.68 | -280.44 | 511.50 | 598.47 | 700.21 | 819.26 | 958.55 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 401.69 | 571.51 | 629.33 | 470.08 | -322.78 | 461.90 | 540.43 | 632.31 | 739.81 | 865.59 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 12.99 | 38.60 | 56.99 | 58.60 | 42.34 | 49.60 | 58.03 | 67.90 | 79.45 | 92.95 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,108.56 | 1,806.82 | 2,388.05 | 1,748.83 | 1,348.89 | 2,090.28 | 2,445.66 | 2,861.45 | 3,347.94 | 3,917.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 59.43 | 140.12 | 83.66 | 62.28 | 32.84 | 97.79 | 114.41 | 133.86 | 156.62 | 183.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 77.86 | 114.94 | 114.29 | 111.90 | 116.19 | 135.60 | 158.65 | 185.62 | 217.18 | 254.10 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -36.88 | -38.85 | -29.84 | -19.91 | -15.25 | -38.57 | -45.13 | -52.80 | -61.78 | -72.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.3 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.274 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 202.35 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -39.07 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.53% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.903 |
| Total Debt | 773.02 |
| Total Equity | 1,072.46 |
| Total Capital | 1,845.48 |
| Debt Weighting | 41.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 58.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,377.05 | 2,145.35 | 2,722.41 | 2,403.87 | 2,332.12 | 2,728.61 | 3,192.51 | 3,735.27 | 4,370.32 | 5,113.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 414.68 | 610.11 | 686.32 | 528.68 | -280.44 | 511.50 | 598.47 | 700.21 | 819.26 | 958.55 |
| EBIT | 401.69 | 571.51 | 629.33 | 470.08 | -322.78 | 461.90 | 540.43 | 632.31 | 739.81 | 865.59 |
| Tax Rate | 15.75% | 18.14% | 23.19% | 27.43% | -39.07% | 9.09% | 9.09% | 9.09% | 9.09% | 9.09% |
| EBIAT | 338.43 | 467.87 | 483.38 | 341.14 | -448.91 | 419.93 | 491.33 | 574.86 | 672.60 | 786.95 |
| Depreciation | 12.99 | 38.60 | 56.99 | 58.60 | 42.34 | 49.60 | 58.03 | 67.90 | 79.45 | 92.95 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -80.69 | 56.46 | 21.38 | 29.44 | -64.95 | -16.63 | -19.45 | -22.76 | -26.63 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 37.08 | -0.65 | -2.39 | 4.29 | 19.40 | 23.05 | 26.97 | 31.56 | 36.92 |
| Capital Expenditure | -36.88 | -38.85 | -29.84 | -19.91 | -15.25 | -38.57 | -45.13 | -52.80 | -61.78 | -72.28 |
| UFCF | 314.54 | 424.01 | 566.34 | 398.81 | -388.09 | 385.42 | 510.66 | 597.48 | 699.06 | 817.91 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 364.25 | 456.12 | 504.36 | 557.71 | 616.70 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,499.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 834.27 |
| Terminal Value | 21,896.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,510.02 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 19,009.17 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -118.27 |
| Equity Value | 19,127.44 |
| Shares Outstanding | 202.35 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 94.53 |