Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)
$34.955
+1.51 (+4.53%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,586.63 | 2,817.11 | 1,751.71 | 2,801.22 | 4,220.14 | 5,081.67 | 6,119.08 | 7,368.27 | 8,872.48 | 10,683.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,219.40 | 1,562.89 | 801.51 | 1,422.16 | 2,165.74 | 2,545.56 | 3,065.23 | 3,690.99 | 4,444.49 | 5,351.82 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,897.43 | -2,556.59 | -872.77 | -688.21 | -1,114 | -2,692.24 | -3,241.85 | -3,903.66 | -4,700.58 | -5,660.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -678.03 | -993.70 | -71.26 | 733.95 | 1,051.74 | -146.67 | -176.62 | -212.67 | -256.09 | -308.37 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 34.955 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.374 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 153.51 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.60% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.686 |
| Total Debt | 2,786.30 |
| Total Equity | 5,365.84 |
| Total Capital | 8,152.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 34.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 65.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,586.63 | 2,817.11 | 1,751.71 | 2,801.22 | 4,220.14 | 5,081.67 | 6,119.08 | 7,368.27 | 8,872.48 | 10,683.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,219.40 | 1,562.89 | 801.51 | 1,422.16 | 2,165.74 | 2,545.56 | 3,065.23 | 3,690.99 | 4,444.49 | 5,351.82 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,897.43 | -2,556.59 | -872.77 | -688.21 | -1,114 | -2,692.24 | -3,241.85 | -3,903.66 | -4,700.58 | -5,660.19 |
| Free Cash Flow | -678.03 | -993.70 | -71.26 | 733.95 | 1,051.74 | -146.67 | -176.62 | -212.67 | -256.09 | -308.37 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -132.26 | -143.61 | -155.93 | -169.30 | -183.83 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -784.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -314.54 |
| Terminal Value | -3,534.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,106.81 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,891.73 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,294.30 |
| Equity Value | -5,186.03 |
| Shares Outstanding | 153.51 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -33.78 |