Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR)

$34.79

+1.35 (+4.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -174.10 | 34.79 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,586.63	2,817.11	1,751.71	2,801.22	4,220.14	5,081.67	6,119.08	7,368.27	8,872.48	10,683.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	617.80	1,406.21	-268.55	954.12	2,202.09	1,470.75	1,771.01	2,132.55	2,567.90	3,092.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	617.80	1,406.21	-1,255.79	159.02	1,425.27	-276.50	-332.94	-400.91	-482.76	-581.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	987.24	795.10	776.82	1,747.25	2,103.95	2,533.46	3,050.66	3,673.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	387.37	306.76	310.61	521.20	492	750.68	903.93	1,088.46	1,310.67	1,578.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	331.86	426.68	262.01	258.15	391.20	624.22	751.66	905.10	1,089.88	1,312.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	87.91	76.12	66.08	54.20	54.50	133.13	160.31	193.04	232.44	279.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	596.07	602.10	407.10	623.13	543.80	1,044.67	1,257.93	1,514.74	1,823.97	2,196.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,897.43	-2,556.59	-872.77	-688.21	-1,114	-2,692.24	-3,241.85	-3,903.66	-4,700.58	-5,660.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 34.79
Beta	2.374
Diluted Shares Outstanding	153.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	33.46
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.686
Total Debt	2,786.30
Total Equity	5,340.51
Total Capital	8,126.81
Debt Weighting	34.29
Equity Weighting	65.71
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,586.63	2,817.11	1,751.71	2,801.22	4,220.14	5,081.67	6,119.08	7,368.27	8,872.48	10,683.77
EBITDA	617.80	1,406.21	-268.55	954.12	2,202.09	1,470.75	1,771.01	2,132.55	2,567.90	3,092.13
EBIT	617.80	1,406.21	-1,255.79	159.02	1,425.27	-276.50	-332.94	-400.91	-482.76	-581.31
Tax Rate	4.91%	-464.98%	25.84%	271.75%	33.46%	-25.81%	-25.81%	-25.81%	-25.81%	-25.81%
EBIAT	587.45	7,944.87	-931.31	-273.11	948.42	-347.85	-418.86	-504.37	-607.34	-731.32
Depreciation	-	-	987.24	795.10	776.82	1,747.25	2,103.95	2,533.46	3,050.66	3,673.45
Accounts Receivable	-	-94.83	164.67	3.86	-133.05	-233.02	-127.43	-153.45	-184.77	-222.50
Inventories	-	11.79	10.05	11.88	-0.30	-78.63	-27.18	-32.73	-39.41	-47.45
Accounts Payable	-	6.03	-195	216.03	-79.33	500.87	213.27	256.80	309.23	372.36
Capital Expenditure	-1,897.43	-2,556.59	-872.77	-688.21	-1,114	-2,692.24	-3,241.85	-3,903.66	-4,700.58	-5,660.19
UFCF	-1,309.98	5,311.27	-837.12	65.56	398.55	-1,103.62	-1,498.11	-1,803.94	-2,172.21	-2,615.66
WACC
PV UFCF						-995.24	-1,218.31	-1,322.95	-1,436.59	-1,559.98
SUM PV UFCF										-6,533.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,667.97
Terminal Value	-30,010.94
Present Value of Terminal Value	-17,898.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-24,431.61
Net Debt	2,294.30
Equity Value	-26,725.91
Shares Outstanding	153.51
Equity Value Per Share	-174.10