Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)

$11.04

+0.39 (+3.66%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3.29 | 11.04 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	364.81	362.22	385.21	444.08	100	85.86	73.72	63.29	54.34	46.66
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	21.83	8.54	37.66	34.61	0.71	4.57	3.93	3.37	2.89	2.48
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4.83	-5.10	-4.91	-6.67	-7.63	-2.26	-1.94	-1.66	-1.43	-1.23
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	17	3.44	32.75	27.94	-6.92	2.32	1.99	1.71	1.47	1.26

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.04
Beta	0.840
Diluted Shares Outstanding	20.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	100.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.493
Total Debt	19.18
Total Equity	224.41
Total Capital	243.60
Debt Weighting	7.88
Equity Weighting	92.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	364.81	362.22	385.21	444.08	100	85.86	73.72	63.29	54.34	46.66
Operating Cash Flow	21.83	8.54	37.66	34.61	0.71	4.57	3.93	3.37	2.89	2.48
Capital Expenditure	-4.83	-5.10	-4.91	-6.67	-7.63	-2.26	-1.94	-1.66	-1.43	-1.23
Free Cash Flow	17	3.44	32.75	27.94	-6.92	2.32	1.99	1.71	1.47	1.26
WACC
PV LFCF						2.17	1.74	1.40	1.12	0.90
SUM PV LFCF										7.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.90
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1.28
Terminal Value	26.20
Present Value of Terminal Value	18.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	26.10
Net Debt	-40.85
Equity Value	66.94
Shares Outstanding	20.33
Equity Value Per Share	3.29