Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)
$10.32
+0.13 (+1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 364.81 | 362.22 | 385.21 | 444.08 | 100 | 85.86 | 73.72 | 63.29 | 54.34 | 46.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 13.74 | 26.12 | 32.04 | 41.88 | 11,028.80 | 1,898.79 | 1,630.30 | 1,399.77 | 1,201.84 | 1,031.90 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.93 | 15.52 | 21.30 | 30.72 | 11,017.78 | 1,895.03 | 1,627.06 | 1,396.99 | 1,199.46 | 1,029.85 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 9.81 | 10.60 | 10.74 | 11.16 | 11.02 | 3.77 | 3.24 | 2.78 | 2.38 | 2.05 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 50.64 | 53.63 | 92.07 | 86.18 | 60.03 | 22.67 | 19.47 | 16.71 | 14.35 | 12.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 7.75 | 7.32 | 7.38 | 8.87 | 14.11 | 3.81 | 3.27 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 2.07 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 42.05 | 46.67 | 47.68 | 60.85 | 67.95 | 20.34 | 17.46 | 14.99 | 12.87 | 11.05 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 5.22 | 4.41 | 6.49 | 9.70 | 6.35 | 2.21 | 1.90 | 1.63 | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.83 | -5.10 | -4.91 | -6.67 | -7.63 | -2.26 | -1.94 | -1.66 | -1.43 | -1.23 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 10.32 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.840 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20.33 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 100.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.360 |
| Total Debt | 19.18 |
| Total Equity | 209.77 |
| Total Capital | 228.96 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 364.81 | 362.22 | 385.21 | 444.08 | 100 | 85.86 | 73.72 | 63.29 | 54.34 | 46.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13.74 | 26.12 | 32.04 | 41.88 | 11,028.80 | 1,898.79 | 1,630.30 | 1,399.77 | 1,201.84 | 1,031.90 |
| EBIT | 3.93 | 15.52 | 21.30 | 30.72 | 11,017.78 | 1,895.03 | 1,627.06 | 1,396.99 | 1,199.46 | 1,029.85 |
| Tax Rate | 126.69% | 56.75% | 6.50% | 9.33% | 100.00% | 59.85% | 59.85% | 59.85% | 59.85% | 59.85% |
| EBIAT | -1.05 | 6.71 | 19.92 | 27.85 | - | 760.77 | 653.20 | 560.83 | 481.53 | 413.44 |
| Depreciation | 9.81 | 10.60 | 10.74 | 11.16 | 11.02 | 3.77 | 3.24 | 2.78 | 2.38 | 2.05 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.43 | -0.06 | -1.50 | -5.24 | 10.30 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| Inventories | - | -4.62 | -1.02 | -13.17 | -7.10 | 47.61 | 2.88 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 1.82 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.81 | 2.08 | 3.22 | -3.35 | -4.14 | -0.31 | -0.27 | -0.23 | -0.20 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.83 | -5.10 | -4.91 | -6.67 | -7.63 | -2.26 | -1.94 | -1.66 | -1.43 | -1.23 |
| UFCF | 3.92 | 7.21 | 26.76 | 20.90 | -12.29 | 816.05 | 657.60 | 564.61 | 484.77 | 416.23 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 764.53 | 577.17 | 464.27 | 373.45 | 300.40 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 2,479.81 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 424.55 |
| Terminal Value | 8,956.76 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,464.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,944.01 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -40.85 |
| Equity Value | 8,984.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 20.33 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 442.02 |