Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)

$91.22

-0.96 (-1.04%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 299.26 | 91.22 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	451.24	788.09	1,045.90	1,133.50	1,488.70	2,036.08	2,784.72	3,808.62	5,209.01	7,124.30
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	101.36	152.05	228.50	256.50	339.40	444	607.25	830.52	1,135.90	1,553.55
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-24.81	-14.75	-10.90	-23.40	-16.50	-47.18	-64.52	-88.25	-120.69	-165.07
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	76.55	137.31	217.60	233.10	322.90	396.82	542.73	742.28	1,015.21	1,388.49

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 91.22
Beta	0.488
Diluted Shares Outstanding	98.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.77
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.112
Total Debt	262.90
Total Equity	9,021.66
Total Capital	9,284.56
Debt Weighting	2.83
Equity Weighting	97.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	451.24	788.09	1,045.90	1,133.50	1,488.70	2,036.08	2,784.72	3,808.62	5,209.01	7,124.30
Operating Cash Flow	101.36	152.05	228.50	256.50	339.40	444	607.25	830.52	1,135.90	1,553.55
Capital Expenditure	-24.81	-14.75	-10.90	-23.40	-16.50	-47.18	-64.52	-88.25	-120.69	-165.07
Free Cash Flow	76.55	137.31	217.60	233.10	322.90	396.82	542.73	742.28	1,015.21	1,388.49
WACC
PV LFCF						374.39	483.12	623.41	804.44	1,038.05
SUM PV LFCF										3,323.41

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.99
Free cash flow (t + 1)	1,416.26
Terminal Value	35,495.13
Present Value of Terminal Value	26,536.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	29,859.95
Net Debt	262.90
Equity Value	29,597.05
Shares Outstanding	98.90
Equity Value Per Share	299.26