Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)

$94.57

+0.71 (+0.76%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 193.14 | 94.57 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	451.24	788.09	1,045.90	1,133.50	1,488.70	2,036.08	2,784.72	3,808.62	5,209.01	7,124.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	56.40	85.96	148.10	138.10	221	263.03	359.75	492.03	672.94	920.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	52.37	78.51	139.50	127.20	205.40	244.02	333.75	456.46	624.29	853.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	4.02	7.45	8.60	10.90	15.60	19.01	26	35.57	48.64	66.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	650.91	670.52	801	711.30	989.30	1,771.89	2,423.39	3,314.44	4,533.12	6,199.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	56.24	126.57	157.10	185.50	222.97	304.95	417.08	570.44	780.18	1,067.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	10.86	17.29	28	30.50	37.10	50.74	69.40	94.92	129.82	177.56
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	13.80	46.21	39.40	51.50	64.14	87.72	119.97	164.09	224.42	306.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-24.81	-14.75	-10.90	-23.40	-16.50	-47.18	-64.52	-88.25	-120.69	-165.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 94.57
Beta	0.488
Diluted Shares Outstanding	98.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.77
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.95%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.004
Total Debt	262.90
Total Equity	9,352.97
Total Capital	9,615.87
Debt Weighting	2.73
Equity Weighting	97.27
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	451.24	788.09	1,045.90	1,133.50	1,488.70	2,036.08	2,784.72	3,808.62	5,209.01	7,124.30
EBITDA	56.40	85.96	148.10	138.10	221	263.03	359.75	492.03	672.94	920.37
EBIT	52.37	78.51	139.50	127.20	205.40	244.02	333.75	456.46	624.29	853.84
Tax Rate	3.34%	20.48%	-281.72%	11.64%	27.77%	-43.70%	-43.70%	-43.70%	-43.70%	-43.70%
EBIAT	50.62	62.43	532.51	112.40	148.36	350.66	479.59	655.93	897.11	1,226.96
Depreciation	4.02	7.45	8.60	10.90	15.60	19.01	26	35.57	48.64	66.53
Accounts Receivable	-	-70.34	-30.52	-28.40	-37.47	-81.98	-112.13	-153.36	-209.74	-286.86
Inventories	-	-6.42	-10.71	-2.50	-6.60	-13.64	-18.66	-25.52	-34.90	-47.73
Accounts Payable	-	32.41	-6.81	12.10	12.64	23.58	32.25	44.11	60.33	82.52
Capital Expenditure	-24.81	-14.75	-10.90	-23.40	-16.50	-47.18	-64.52	-88.25	-120.69	-165.07
UFCF	29.83	10.79	482.15	81.10	116.02	250.45	342.54	468.49	640.75	876.34
WACC
PV UFCF						236.52	305.49	394.58	509.64	658.26
SUM PV UFCF										2,104.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	893.87
Terminal Value	22,978.63
Present Value of Terminal Value	17,260.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	19,364.84
Net Debt	262.90
Equity Value	19,101.94
Shares Outstanding	98.90
Equity Value Per Share	193.14