Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$ 628.08
+2.50 (+0.40%)
Stock DCF: -4,593.22 | 628.08 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 8,830.6711,692.7115,794.3420,156.4524,996.0632,439.7042,100.0254,637.1070,907.6492,023.44
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -1,473.98-1,785.95-2,680.48-2,887.322,427.08-3,474.39-4,509.04-5,851.80-7,594.42-9,855.99
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -184.83-227.02-212.53-253.03-497.92-559.75-726.44-942.77-1,223.52-1,587.88
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -1,658.81-2,012.97-2,893.01-3,140.361,929.15-4,034.14-5,235.48-6,794.57-8,817.95-11,443.87

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 628.08
Beta 0.812
Diluted Shares Outstanding 454.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.344
Total Debt 16,308.97
Total Equity 285,278.96
Total Capital 301,587.93
Debt Weighting 5.41
Equity Weighting 94.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 8,830.6711,692.7115,794.3420,156.4524,996.0632,439.7042,100.0254,637.1070,907.6492,023.44
Operating Cash Flow -1,473.98-1,785.95-2,680.48-2,887.322,427.08-3,474.39-4,509.04-5,851.80-7,594.42-9,855.99
Capital Expenditure -184.83-227.02-212.53-253.03-497.92-559.75-726.44-942.77-1,223.52-1,587.88
Free Cash Flow -1,658.81-2,012.97-2,893.01-3,140.361,929.15-4,034.14-5,235.48-6,794.57-8,817.95-11,443.87
WACC
PV LFCF -3,825.65-4,708.30-5,794.59-7,131.51-8,776.88
SUM PV LFCF -30,236.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -12,016.07
Terminal Value -2,670,236.92
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,047,938.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,078,175.25
Net Debt 8,103.42
Equity Value -2,086,278.68
Shares Outstanding 454.21
Equity Value Per Share -4,593.22