Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$360.77

-4.10 (-1.12%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 1,211.46 | 360.77 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,794.34	20,156.45	24,996.06	29,697.84	31,615.55	37,693.32	44,939.47	53,578.62	63,878.56	76,158.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	9,303.41	12,008.08	15,507.91	19,044.50	20,332.96	23,291.45	27,768.99	33,107.30	39,471.83	47,059.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,646.95	2,688.25	4,585.29	6,605.72	5,970.14	6,274.82	7,481.09	8,919.25	10,633.88	12,678.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	7,656.46	9,319.83	10,922.62	12,438.78	14,362.81	17,016.63	20,287.91	24,188.05	28,837.95	34,381.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	3,794.48	5,018.44	8,205.55	6,027.80	6,058.45	9,137.55	10,894.15	12,988.44	15,485.33	18,462.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	979.07	610.82	804.32	32,736.71	10,700.72	12,757.82	15,210.38	18,134.42	21,620.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	562.99	674.35	656.18	837.48	671.51	1,091.54	1,301.37	1,551.55	1,849.82	2,205.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-212.53	-253.03	-497.92	-524.59	-407.73	-576.63	-687.49	-819.65	-977.22	-1,165.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 360.77
Beta	1.173
Diluted Shares Outstanding	451.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.67
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.056
Total Debt	14,353.08
Total Equity	162,811.89
Total Capital	177,164.97
Debt Weighting	8.10
Equity Weighting	91.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	15,794.34	20,156.45	24,996.06	29,697.84	31,615.55	37,693.32	44,939.47	53,578.62	63,878.56	76,158.56
EBITDA	9,303.41	12,008.08	15,507.91	19,044.50	20,332.96	23,291.45	27,768.99	33,107.30	39,471.83	47,059.89
EBIT	1,646.95	2,688.25	4,585.29	6,605.72	5,970.14	6,274.82	7,481.09	8,919.25	10,633.88	12,678.14
Tax Rate	1.24%	9.47%	13.69%	12.39%	14.67%	10.29%	10.29%	10.29%	10.29%	10.29%
EBIAT	1,626.52	2,433.65	3,957.62	5,786.95	5,094.56	5,628.99	6,711.11	8,001.25	9,539.41	11,373.27
Depreciation	7,656.46	9,319.83	10,922.62	12,438.78	14,362.81	17,016.63	20,287.91	24,188.05	28,837.95	34,381.75
Accounts Receivable	-	-	368.25	-193.50	-31,932.39	22,036	-2,057.10	-2,452.56	-2,924.04	-3,486.16
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	111.36	-18.16	181.30	-165.97	420.02	209.84	250.18	298.27	355.61
Capital Expenditure	-212.53	-253.03	-497.92	-524.59	-407.73	-576.63	-687.49	-819.65	-977.22	-1,165.08
UFCF	9,070.44	11,611.80	14,732.40	17,688.94	-13,048.71	44,525.01	24,464.26	29,167.27	34,774.38	41,459.39
WACC
PV UFCF						40,976.45	20,720.14	22,734.57	24,944.83	27,369.98
SUM PV UFCF										136,745.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.66
Free cash flow (t + 1)	42,288.58
Terminal Value	634,963.68
Present Value of Terminal Value	419,179.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	555,925.80
Net Debt	9,205.90
Equity Value	546,719.90
Shares Outstanding	451.29
Equity Value Per Share	1,211.46