Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$ 628.08
+2.50 (+0.40%)
Stock DCF: 22,783.88 | 628.08 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 8,830.6711,692.7115,794.3420,156.4524,996.0632,439.7042,100.0254,637.1070,907.6492,023.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,335.607,169.069,303.4112,008.0815,507.9119,609.9825,449.6933,028.4342,864.0655,628.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 410.62838.681,646.952,688.254,585.293,499.024,5415,893.287,648.259,925.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,924.986,330.397,656.469,319.8310,922.6216,110.9620,908.6927,135.1535,215.8045,702.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 1,733.782,822.803,794.485,018.448,205.558,143.9410,569.1513,716.5617,801.2623,102.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ---979.07610.821,184.211,536.861,994.532,588.493,359.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 312.84359.56562.99674.35656.181,047.991,360.071,765.092,290.732,972.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -184.83-227.02-212.53-253.03-497.92-559.75-726.44-942.77-1,223.52-1,587.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 628.08
Beta 0.812
Diluted Shares Outstanding 454.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.312
Total Debt 16,308.97
Total Equity 285,278.96
Total Capital 301,587.93
Debt Weighting 5.41
Equity Weighting 94.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 8,830.6711,692.7115,794.3420,156.4524,996.0632,439.7042,100.0254,637.1070,907.6492,023.44
EBITDA 5,335.607,169.069,303.4112,008.0815,507.9119,609.9825,449.6933,028.4342,864.0655,628.67
EBIT 410.62838.681,646.952,688.254,585.293,499.024,5415,893.287,648.259,925.85
Tax Rate 28.34%-15.17%1.24%9.47%13.69%7.51%7.51%7.51%7.51%7.51%
EBIAT 294.25965.881,626.522,433.653,957.623,236.074,199.755,450.417,073.509,179.93
Depreciation 4,924.986,330.397,656.469,319.8310,922.6216,110.9620,908.6927,135.1535,215.8045,702.82
Accounts Receivable ----368.25-573.39-352.65-457.67-593.96-770.83
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -46.71203.43111.36-18.16391.81312.08405.02525.63682.16
Capital Expenditure -184.83-227.02-212.53-253.03-497.92-559.75-726.44-942.77-1,223.52-1,587.88
UFCF 5,034.407,115.969,273.8711,611.8014,732.4018,605.6924,341.4331,590.1440,997.4553,206.20
WACC
PV UFCF 17,649.1121,902.8226,963.8833,194.4040,864.60
SUM PV UFCF 140,574.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 55,866.51
Terminal Value 13,301,550.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,216,149.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,356,723.85
Net Debt 8,103.42
Equity Value 10,348,620.43
Shares Outstanding 454.21
Equity Value Per Share 22,783.88