Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$360.77

-4.10 (-1.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,211.46 | 360.77 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,794.3420,156.4524,996.0629,697.8431,615.5537,693.3244,939.4753,578.6263,878.5676,158.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9,303.4112,008.0815,507.9119,044.5020,332.9623,291.4527,768.9933,107.3039,471.8347,059.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,646.952,688.254,585.296,605.725,970.146,274.827,481.098,919.2510,633.8812,678.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7,656.469,319.8310,922.6212,438.7814,362.8117,016.6320,287.9124,188.0528,837.9534,381.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3,794.485,018.448,205.556,027.806,058.459,137.5510,894.1512,988.4415,485.3318,462.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -979.07610.82804.3232,736.7110,700.7212,757.8215,210.3818,134.4221,620.57
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 562.99674.35656.18837.48671.511,091.541,301.371,551.551,849.822,205.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -212.53-253.03-497.92-524.59-407.73-576.63-687.49-819.65-977.22-1,165.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 360.77
Beta 1.173
Diluted Shares Outstanding 451.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.056
Total Debt 14,353.08
Total Equity 162,811.89
Total Capital 177,164.97
Debt Weighting 8.10
Equity Weighting 91.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 15,794.3420,156.4524,996.0629,697.8431,615.5537,693.3244,939.4753,578.6263,878.5676,158.56
EBITDA 9,303.4112,008.0815,507.9119,044.5020,332.9623,291.4527,768.9933,107.3039,471.8347,059.89
EBIT 1,646.952,688.254,585.296,605.725,970.146,274.827,481.098,919.2510,633.8812,678.14
Tax Rate 1.24%9.47%13.69%12.39%14.67%10.29%10.29%10.29%10.29%10.29%
EBIAT 1,626.522,433.653,957.625,786.955,094.565,628.996,711.118,001.259,539.4111,373.27
Depreciation 7,656.469,319.8310,922.6212,438.7814,362.8117,016.6320,287.9124,188.0528,837.9534,381.75
Accounts Receivable --368.25-193.50-31,932.3922,036-2,057.10-2,452.56-2,924.04-3,486.16
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -111.36-18.16181.30-165.97420.02209.84250.18298.27355.61
Capital Expenditure -212.53-253.03-497.92-524.59-407.73-576.63-687.49-819.65-977.22-1,165.08
UFCF 9,070.4411,611.8014,732.4017,688.94-13,048.7144,525.0124,464.2629,167.2734,774.3841,459.39
WACC
PV UFCF 40,976.4520,720.1422,734.5724,944.8327,369.98
SUM PV UFCF 136,745.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 42,288.58
Terminal Value 634,963.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 419,179.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 555,925.80
Net Debt 9,205.90
Equity Value 546,719.90
Shares Outstanding 451.29
Equity Value Per Share 1,211.46