Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

$ 514.41

-1.45 (-0.28%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 2,674.78 | 514.41 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	8,830.67	11,692.71	15,794.34	20,156.45	24,996.06	32,439.70	42,100.02	54,637.10	70,907.64	92,023.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,335.60	7,169.06	9,303.41	12,008.08	15,507.91	19,609.98	25,449.69	33,028.43	42,864.06	55,628.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	410.62	838.68	1,646.95	2,688.25	4,585.29	3,499.02	4,541	5,893.28	7,648.25	9,925.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	4,924.98	6,330.39	7,656.46	9,319.83	10,922.62	16,110.96	20,908.69	27,135.15	35,215.80	45,702.82
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Total Cash	1,733.78	2,822.80	3,794.48	5,018.44	8,205.55	8,143.94	10,569.15	13,716.56	17,801.26	23,102.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	979.07	610.82	1,184.21	1,536.86	1,994.53	2,588.49	3,359.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	312.84	359.56	562.99	674.35	656.18	1,047.99	1,360.07	1,765.09	2,290.73	2,972.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-184.83	-227.02	-212.53	-253.03	-497.92	-559.75	-726.44	-942.77	-1,223.52	-1,587.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 514.41
Beta	0.813
Diluted Shares Outstanding	454.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	13.69
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.34%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.676
Total Debt	16,308.97
Total Equity	233,649.14
Total Capital	249,958.11
Debt Weighting	6.52
Equity Weighting	93.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected
Revenue	8,830.67	11,692.71	15,794.34	20,156.45	24,996.06	32,439.70	42,100.02	54,637.10	70,907.64	92,023.44
EBITDA	5,335.60	7,169.06	9,303.41	12,008.08	15,507.91	19,609.98	25,449.69	33,028.43	42,864.06	55,628.67
EBIT	410.62	838.68	1,646.95	2,688.25	4,585.29	3,499.02	4,541	5,893.28	7,648.25	9,925.85
Tax Rate	28.34%	-15.17%	1.24%	9.47%	13.69%	7.51%	7.51%	7.51%	7.51%	7.51%
EBIAT	294.25	965.88	1,626.52	2,433.65	3,957.62	3,236.07	4,199.75	5,450.41	7,073.50	9,179.93
Depreciation	4,924.98	6,330.39	7,656.46	9,319.83	10,922.62	16,110.96	20,908.69	27,135.15	35,215.80	45,702.82
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	368.25	-573.39	-352.65	-457.67	-593.96	-770.83
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	46.71	203.43	111.36	-18.16	391.81	312.08	405.02	525.63	682.16
Capital Expenditure	-184.83	-227.02	-212.53	-253.03	-497.92	-559.75	-726.44	-942.77	-1,223.52	-1,587.88
UFCF	5,034.40	7,115.96	9,273.87	11,611.80	14,732.40	18,605.69	24,341.43	31,590.14	40,997.45	53,206.20
WACC
PV UFCF						17,589.05	21,753.99	26,689.52	32,744.82	40,173.94
SUM PV UFCF										138,951.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.78
Free cash flow (t + 1)	54,270.33
Terminal Value	1,435,722.95
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,084,058.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,223,010.10
Net Debt	8,103.42
Equity Value	1,214,906.68
Shares Outstanding	454.21
Equity Value Per Share	2,674.78