Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
$360.77
-4.10 (-1.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,794.34 | 20,156.45 | 24,996.06 | 29,697.84 | 31,615.55 | 37,693.32 | 44,939.47 | 53,578.62 | 63,878.56 | 76,158.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 9,303.41 | 12,008.08 | 15,507.91 | 19,044.50 | 20,332.96 | 23,291.45 | 27,768.99 | 33,107.30 | 39,471.83 | 47,059.89 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1,646.95 | 2,688.25 | 4,585.29 | 6,605.72 | 5,970.14 | 6,274.82 | 7,481.09 | 8,919.25 | 10,633.88 | 12,678.14 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 7,656.46 | 9,319.83 | 10,922.62 | 12,438.78 | 14,362.81 | 17,016.63 | 20,287.91 | 24,188.05 | 28,837.95 | 34,381.75 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 3,794.48 | 5,018.44 | 8,205.55 | 6,027.80 | 6,058.45 | 9,137.55 | 10,894.15 | 12,988.44 | 15,485.33 | 18,462.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | - | 979.07 | 610.82 | 804.32 | 32,736.71 | 10,700.72 | 12,757.82 | 15,210.38 | 18,134.42 | 21,620.57 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 562.99 | 674.35 | 656.18 | 837.48 | 671.51 | 1,091.54 | 1,301.37 | 1,551.55 | 1,849.82 | 2,205.43 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -212.53 | -253.03 | -497.92 | -524.59 | -407.73 | -576.63 | -687.49 | -819.65 | -977.22 | -1,165.08 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 360.77 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.173 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 451.29 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 14.67 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.20% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.056 |
Total Debt | 14,353.08 |
Total Equity | 162,811.89 |
Total Capital | 177,164.97 |
Debt Weighting | 8.10 |
Equity Weighting | 91.90 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 15,794.34 | 20,156.45 | 24,996.06 | 29,697.84 | 31,615.55 | 37,693.32 | 44,939.47 | 53,578.62 | 63,878.56 | 76,158.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 9,303.41 | 12,008.08 | 15,507.91 | 19,044.50 | 20,332.96 | 23,291.45 | 27,768.99 | 33,107.30 | 39,471.83 | 47,059.89 |
EBIT | 1,646.95 | 2,688.25 | 4,585.29 | 6,605.72 | 5,970.14 | 6,274.82 | 7,481.09 | 8,919.25 | 10,633.88 | 12,678.14 |
Tax Rate | 1.24% | 9.47% | 13.69% | 12.39% | 14.67% | 10.29% | 10.29% | 10.29% | 10.29% | 10.29% |
EBIAT | 1,626.52 | 2,433.65 | 3,957.62 | 5,786.95 | 5,094.56 | 5,628.99 | 6,711.11 | 8,001.25 | 9,539.41 | 11,373.27 |
Depreciation | 7,656.46 | 9,319.83 | 10,922.62 | 12,438.78 | 14,362.81 | 17,016.63 | 20,287.91 | 24,188.05 | 28,837.95 | 34,381.75 |
Accounts Receivable | - | - | 368.25 | -193.50 | -31,932.39 | 22,036 | -2,057.10 | -2,452.56 | -2,924.04 | -3,486.16 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 111.36 | -18.16 | 181.30 | -165.97 | 420.02 | 209.84 | 250.18 | 298.27 | 355.61 |
Capital Expenditure | -212.53 | -253.03 | -497.92 | -524.59 | -407.73 | -576.63 | -687.49 | -819.65 | -977.22 | -1,165.08 |
UFCF | 9,070.44 | 11,611.80 | 14,732.40 | 17,688.94 | -13,048.71 | 44,525.01 | 24,464.26 | 29,167.27 | 34,774.38 | 41,459.39 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 40,976.45 | 20,720.14 | 22,734.57 | 24,944.83 | 27,369.98 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 136,745.97 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.66 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 42,288.58 |
Terminal Value | 634,963.68 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 419,179.83 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 555,925.80 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 9,205.90 |
Equity Value | 546,719.90 |
Shares Outstanding | 451.29 |
Equity Value Per Share | 1,211.46 |