Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

New Gold Inc. (NGD)

$1.15

-0.03 (-2.54%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -0.77 | 1.15 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	604.40	604.50	630.60	643.40	745.50	786.94	830.68	876.85	925.58	977.03
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	342.20	245.10	263.50	294.80	323.70	359.14	379.10	400.17	422.42	445.90
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-567	-213.90	-253.30	-284.20	-247.30	-388.29	-409.87	-432.65	-456.70	-482.08
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-224.80	31.20	10.20	10.60	76.40	-29.15	-30.77	-32.48	-34.28	-36.19

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.15
Beta	1.622
Diluted Shares Outstanding	682.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	12.29
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.207
Total Debt	501.70
Total Equity	784.76
Total Capital	1,286.46
Debt Weighting	39.00
Equity Weighting	61.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	604.40	604.50	630.60	643.40	745.50	786.94	830.68	876.85	925.58	977.03
Operating Cash Flow	342.20	245.10	263.50	294.80	323.70	359.14	379.10	400.17	422.42	445.90
Capital Expenditure	-567	-213.90	-253.30	-284.20	-247.30	-388.29	-409.87	-432.65	-456.70	-482.08
Free Cash Flow	-224.80	31.20	10.20	10.60	76.40	-29.15	-30.77	-32.48	-34.28	-36.19
WACC
PV LFCF						-26.86	-26.14	-25.43	-24.74	-24.07
SUM PV LFCF										-127.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-36.91
Terminal Value	-567.87
Present Value of Terminal Value	-377.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-504.89
Net Debt	20.20
Equity Value	-525.09
Shares Outstanding	682.40
Equity Value Per Share	-0.77