Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
New Gold Inc. (NGD)
$0.9327
+0.01 (+1.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 604.50 | 630.60 | 643.40 | 745.50 | 604.40 | 609.37 | 614.38 | 619.43 | 624.53 | 629.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -947.50 | 219 | 164.60 | 381.50 | 148.30 | -25.25 | -25.46 | -25.67 | -25.88 | -26.09 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -25.25 | -25.46 | -25.67 | -25.88 | -26.09 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 103.70 | 83.40 | 231.70 | 541 | 236.40 | 217.03 | 218.81 | 220.61 | 222.42 | 224.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 40.90 | 28 | 82 | 30.10 | 15.90 | 37.32 | 37.62 | 37.93 | 38.25 | 38.56 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 141.80 | 110 | 93 | 101 | 115.70 | 107.31 | 108.19 | 109.08 | 109.97 | 110.88 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 47.10 | 39.70 | 41.60 | 52 | 61.80 | 46.01 | 46.39 | 46.77 | 47.16 | 47.54 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -213.90 | -253.30 | -284.20 | -247.30 | -292.90 | -245.40 | -247.42 | -249.46 | -251.51 | -253.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.9,327 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.677 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 682.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -2.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.49% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.414 |
| Total Debt | 396.20 |
| Total Equity | 636.47 |
| Total Capital | 1,032.67 |
| Debt Weighting | 38.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 61.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 604.50 | 630.60 | 643.40 | 745.50 | 604.40 | 609.37 | 614.38 | 619.43 | 624.53 | 629.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -947.50 | 219 | 164.60 | 381.50 | 148.30 | -25.25 | -25.46 | -25.67 | -25.88 | -26.09 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | -25.25 | -25.46 | -25.67 | -25.88 | -26.09 |
| Tax Rate | -11.83% | 0.54% | -5.73% | 12.29% | -2.14% | -1.38% | -1.38% | -1.38% | -1.38% | -1.38% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | -25.60 | -25.81 | -26.02 | -26.24 | -26.45 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 12.90 | -54 | 51.90 | 14.20 | -21.42 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Inventories | - | 31.80 | 17 | -8 | -14.70 | 8.39 | -0.88 | -0.89 | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -7.40 | 1.90 | 10.40 | 9.80 | -15.79 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| Capital Expenditure | -213.90 | -253.30 | -284.20 | -247.30 | -292.90 | -245.40 | -247.42 | -249.46 | -251.51 | -253.58 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | -299.81 | -274.04 | -276.29 | -278.57 | -280.86 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -275.66 | -231.67 | -214.77 | -199.09 | -184.56 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,105.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -286.47 |
| Terminal Value | -4,237.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,784.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,890.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 195.40 |
| Equity Value | -4,085.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 682.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.99 |