Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)

$1.27

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 21.75 | 1.27 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	396.75	309.29	552.56	708.97	909.64	1,167.12	1,497.48	1,921.36	2,465.21	3,163	4,058.31
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	21.25	-22.57	71.66	26.06	33.43	42.90	55.04	70.62	90.61	116.26	149.16
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-10.38	-8.95	-9.73	-17.18	-22.05	-28.29	-36.29	-46.57	-59.75	-76.66	-98.36
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	10.87	-31.52	61.93	8.88	11.39	14.61	18.75	24.05	30.86	39.60	50.80

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.27
Beta	1.585
Diluted Shares Outstanding	31.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-7.41
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.223
Total Debt	42.95
Total Equity	40.11
Total Capital	83.06
Debt Weighting	51.71
Equity Weighting	48.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	396.75	309.29	552.56	708.97	909.64	1,167.12	1,497.48	1,921.36	2,465.21	3,163	4,058.31
Operating Cash Flow	21.25	-22.57	71.66	26.06	33.43	42.90	55.04	70.62	90.61	116.26	149.16
Capital Expenditure	-10.38	-8.95	-9.73	-17.18	-22.05	-28.29	-36.29	-46.57	-59.75	-76.66	-98.36
Free Cash Flow	10.87	-31.52	61.93	8.88	11.39	14.61	18.75	24.05	30.86	39.60	50.80
WACC
PV LFCF				9.59	11.39	13.53	16.07	19.09	22.67	26.94	32
SUM PV LFCF											126.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.01
Free cash flow (t + 1)	51.82
Terminal Value	862.22
Present Value of Terminal Value	586.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	712.66
Net Debt	25.58
Equity Value	687.07
Shares Outstanding	31.59
Equity Value Per Share	21.75