Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)

$0.714

-0.01 (-1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.87 | 0.714 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 396.75309.29552.56589.53286.77295.34304.16313.24322.60332.23
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 20.7743.47119.14-25.32-34.3314.5214.9615.4015.8616.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11.8332.66109.70-33.93-45.446.977.177.397.617.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.9410.819.458.6211.107.567.788.018.258.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 63.5211.0792.7812.8717.3626.3527.1427.9528.7929.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 51.5055.0795.2463.4523.2839.5240.7041.9143.1744.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 68.4654.7751.14111.1946.6046.8648.2649.7051.1852.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.2774.2596.4053.1729.3848.8650.3251.8253.3754.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.38-8.95-9.73-13.05-12.62-8.20-8.45-8.70-8.96-9.23
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.714
Beta 1.573
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -9.54
After-tax Cost of Debt -23.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.966
Total Debt 49.14
Total Equity 22.55
Total Capital 71.69
Debt Weighting 68.54
Equity Weighting 31.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 396.75309.29552.56589.53286.77295.34304.16313.24322.60332.23
EBITDA 20.7743.47119.14-25.32-34.3314.5214.9615.4015.8616.34
EBIT 11.8332.66109.70-33.93-45.446.977.177.397.617.84
Tax Rate 30.20%8.87%17.72%21.35%-9.54%13.72%13.72%13.72%13.72%13.72%
EBIAT 8.2529.7690.26-26.69-49.776.016.196.386.576.76
Depreciation 8.9410.819.458.6211.107.567.788.018.258.50
Accounts Receivable --3.57-40.1731.7940.17-16.24-1.18-1.22-1.25-1.29
Inventories -13.703.63-60.0564.59-0.26-1.40-1.44-1.48-1.53
Accounts Payable --13.0122.14-43.23-23.7919.481.461.501.551.59
Capital Expenditure -10.38-8.95-9.73-13.05-12.62-8.20-8.45-8.70-8.96-9.23
UFCF 6.8228.7475.58-102.6129.698.344.414.544.674.81
WACC
PV UFCF 9.505.726.717.879.23
SUM PV UFCF 39.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -12.21
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.91
Terminal Value -34.54
Present Value of Terminal Value -66.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -27.22
Net Debt 31.77
Equity Value -58.99
Shares Outstanding 31.59
Equity Value Per Share -1.87