Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)
$0.714
-0.01 (-1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 396.75 | 309.29 | 552.56 | 589.53 | 286.77 | 295.34 | 304.16 | 313.24 | 322.60 | 332.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 20.77 | 43.47 | 119.14 | -25.32 | -34.33 | 14.52 | 14.96 | 15.40 | 15.86 | 16.34 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 11.83 | 32.66 | 109.70 | -33.93 | -45.44 | 6.97 | 7.17 | 7.39 | 7.61 | 7.84 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.94 | 10.81 | 9.45 | 8.62 | 11.10 | 7.56 | 7.78 | 8.01 | 8.25 | 8.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 63.52 | 11.07 | 92.78 | 12.87 | 17.36 | 26.35 | 27.14 | 27.95 | 28.79 | 29.65 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 51.50 | 55.07 | 95.24 | 63.45 | 23.28 | 39.52 | 40.70 | 41.91 | 43.17 | 44.46 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 68.46 | 54.77 | 51.14 | 111.19 | 46.60 | 46.86 | 48.26 | 49.70 | 51.18 | 52.71 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 87.27 | 74.25 | 96.40 | 53.17 | 29.38 | 48.86 | 50.32 | 51.82 | 53.37 | 54.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.38 | -8.95 | -9.73 | -13.05 | -12.62 | -8.20 | -8.45 | -8.70 | -8.96 | -9.23 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.714 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.573 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -9.54 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -23.30% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.966 |
| Total Debt | 49.14 |
| Total Equity | 22.55 |
| Total Capital | 71.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 68.54 |
| Equity Weighting | 31.46 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 396.75 | 309.29 | 552.56 | 589.53 | 286.77 | 295.34 | 304.16 | 313.24 | 322.60 | 332.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 20.77 | 43.47 | 119.14 | -25.32 | -34.33 | 14.52 | 14.96 | 15.40 | 15.86 | 16.34 |
| EBIT | 11.83 | 32.66 | 109.70 | -33.93 | -45.44 | 6.97 | 7.17 | 7.39 | 7.61 | 7.84 |
| Tax Rate | 30.20% | 8.87% | 17.72% | 21.35% | -9.54% | 13.72% | 13.72% | 13.72% | 13.72% | 13.72% |
| EBIAT | 8.25 | 29.76 | 90.26 | -26.69 | -49.77 | 6.01 | 6.19 | 6.38 | 6.57 | 6.76 |
| Depreciation | 8.94 | 10.81 | 9.45 | 8.62 | 11.10 | 7.56 | 7.78 | 8.01 | 8.25 | 8.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.57 | -40.17 | 31.79 | 40.17 | -16.24 | -1.18 | -1.22 | -1.25 | -1.29 |
| Inventories | - | 13.70 | 3.63 | -60.05 | 64.59 | -0.26 | -1.40 | -1.44 | -1.48 | -1.53 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -13.01 | 22.14 | -43.23 | -23.79 | 19.48 | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.38 | -8.95 | -9.73 | -13.05 | -12.62 | -8.20 | -8.45 | -8.70 | -8.96 | -9.23 |
| UFCF | 6.82 | 28.74 | 75.58 | -102.61 | 29.69 | 8.34 | 4.41 | 4.54 | 4.67 | 4.81 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 9.50 | 5.72 | 6.71 | 7.87 | 9.23 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 39.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -12.21 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4.91 |
| Terminal Value | -34.54 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -66.23 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -27.22 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 31.77 |
| Equity Value | -58.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1.87 |