Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)
$1.27
-0.02 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 396.75 | 309.29 | 552.56 | 708.97 | 909.64 | 1,167.12 | 1,497.48 | 1,921.36 | 2,465.21 | 3,163 | 4,058.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 30.54 | -90.55 | 82.99 | -15.50 | -19.89 | -25.51 | -32.74 | -42 | -53.89 | -69.15 | -88.72 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 21.60 | -101.36 | 73.54 | -33.13 | -42.50 | -54.53 | -69.97 | -89.78 | -115.19 | -147.79 | -189.62 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 8.94 | 10.81 | 9.45 | 17.63 | 22.62 | 29.02 | 37.23 | 47.77 | 61.29 | 78.64 | 100.90 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 63.52 | 11.07 | 92.78 | 85.97 | 110.31 | 141.53 | 181.59 | 232.99 | 298.94 | 383.56 | 492.13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 51.50 | 55.07 | 95.24 | 113.49 | 145.61 | 186.83 | 239.72 | 307.57 | 394.63 | 506.33 | 649.65 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 68.46 | 54.77 | 51.14 | 104.50 | 134.08 | 172.03 | 220.73 | 283.20 | 363.37 | 466.22 | 598.19 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 87.27 | 74.25 | 96.40 | 149.94 | 192.39 | 246.84 | 316.71 | 406.36 | 521.39 | 668.97 | 858.32 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -10.38 | -8.95 | -9.73 | -17.18 | -22.05 | -28.29 | -36.29 | -46.57 | -59.75 | -76.66 | -98.36 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 1.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.585 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -7.41 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.221 |
Total Debt | 42.95 |
Total Equity | 40.11 |
Total Capital | 83.06 |
Debt Weighting | 51.71 |
Equity Weighting | 48.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 396.75 | 309.29 | 552.56 | 708.97 | 909.64 | 1,167.12 | 1,497.48 | 1,921.36 | 2,465.21 | 3,163 | 4,058.31 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 30.54 | -90.55 | 82.99 | -15.50 | -19.89 | -25.51 | -32.74 | -42 | -53.89 | -69.15 | -88.72 |
EBIT | 21.60 | -101.36 | 73.54 | -33.13 | -42.50 | -54.53 | -69.97 | -89.78 | -115.19 | -147.79 | -189.62 |
Tax Rate | 30.20% | 8.87% | 17.72% | 13.98% | 20.54% | -7.41% | 13.98% | 13.98% | 13.98% | 13.98% | 13.98% |
EBIAT | 15.08 | -92.37 | 60.51 | -28.49 | -33.77 | -58.57 | -60.18 | -77.22 | -99.08 | -127.12 | -163.11 |
Depreciation | 8.94 | 10.81 | 9.45 | 17.63 | 22.62 | 29.02 | 37.23 | 47.77 | 61.29 | 78.64 | 100.90 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -3.57 | -40.17 | -18.25 | -32.12 | -41.22 | -52.88 | -67.85 | -87.06 | -111.70 | -143.32 |
Inventories | - | 13.70 | 3.63 | -53.36 | -29.58 | -37.95 | -48.69 | -62.48 | -80.16 | -102.85 | -131.97 |
Accounts Payable | - | -13.01 | 22.14 | 53.55 | 42.44 | 54.46 | 69.87 | 89.65 | 115.02 | 147.58 | 189.36 |
Capital Expenditure | -10.38 | -8.95 | -9.73 | -17.18 | -13.05 | -12.62 | -36.29 | -46.57 | -59.75 | -76.66 | -98.36 |
UFCF | 13.64 | -93.39 | 45.83 | -46.11 | -52.46 | -82.55 | -90.95 | -116.70 | -149.73 | -192.11 | -246.49 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | -49.80 | -52.46 | -76.44 | -77.98 | -92.64 | -110.06 | -130.75 | -155.33 | |||
SUM PV UFCF | -612.10 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.00 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -251.42 |
Terminal Value | -4,190.36 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,851.89 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -3,463.99 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 25.58 |
Equity Value | -3,489.57 |
Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
Equity Value Per Share | -110.48 |