Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)

$1.27

-0.02 (-1.55%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -110.48 | 1.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	396.75	309.29	552.56	708.97	909.64	1,167.12	1,497.48	1,921.36	2,465.21	3,163	4,058.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	30.54	-90.55	82.99	-15.50	-19.89	-25.51	-32.74	-42	-53.89	-69.15	-88.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	21.60	-101.36	73.54	-33.13	-42.50	-54.53	-69.97	-89.78	-115.19	-147.79	-189.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	8.94	10.81	9.45	17.63	22.62	29.02	37.23	47.77	61.29	78.64	100.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	63.52	11.07	92.78	85.97	110.31	141.53	181.59	232.99	298.94	383.56	492.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	51.50	55.07	95.24	113.49	145.61	186.83	239.72	307.57	394.63	506.33	649.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	68.46	54.77	51.14	104.50	134.08	172.03	220.73	283.20	363.37	466.22	598.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	87.27	74.25	96.40	149.94	192.39	246.84	316.71	406.36	521.39	668.97	858.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-10.38	-8.95	-9.73	-17.18	-22.05	-28.29	-36.29	-46.57	-59.75	-76.66	-98.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.27
Beta	1.585
Diluted Shares Outstanding	31.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-7.41
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.221
Total Debt	42.95
Total Equity	40.11
Total Capital	83.06
Debt Weighting	51.71
Equity Weighting	48.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	396.75	309.29	552.56	708.97	909.64	1,167.12	1,497.48	1,921.36	2,465.21	3,163	4,058.31
EBITDA	30.54	-90.55	82.99	-15.50	-19.89	-25.51	-32.74	-42	-53.89	-69.15	-88.72
EBIT	21.60	-101.36	73.54	-33.13	-42.50	-54.53	-69.97	-89.78	-115.19	-147.79	-189.62
Tax Rate	30.20%	8.87%	17.72%	13.98%	20.54%	-7.41%	13.98%	13.98%	13.98%	13.98%	13.98%
EBIAT	15.08	-92.37	60.51	-28.49	-33.77	-58.57	-60.18	-77.22	-99.08	-127.12	-163.11
Depreciation	8.94	10.81	9.45	17.63	22.62	29.02	37.23	47.77	61.29	78.64	100.90
Accounts Receivable	-	-3.57	-40.17	-18.25	-32.12	-41.22	-52.88	-67.85	-87.06	-111.70	-143.32
Inventories	-	13.70	3.63	-53.36	-29.58	-37.95	-48.69	-62.48	-80.16	-102.85	-131.97
Accounts Payable	-	-13.01	22.14	53.55	42.44	54.46	69.87	89.65	115.02	147.58	189.36
Capital Expenditure	-10.38	-8.95	-9.73	-17.18	-13.05	-12.62	-36.29	-46.57	-59.75	-76.66	-98.36
UFCF	13.64	-93.39	45.83	-46.11	-52.46	-82.55	-90.95	-116.70	-149.73	-192.11	-246.49
WACC
PV UFCF				-49.80	-52.46	-76.44	-77.98	-92.64	-110.06	-130.75	-155.33
SUM PV UFCF											-612.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.00
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-251.42
Terminal Value	-4,190.36
Present Value of Terminal Value	-2,851.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-3,463.99
Net Debt	25.58
Equity Value	-3,489.57
Shares Outstanding	31.59
Equity Value Per Share	-110.48