Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nautilus, Inc. (NLS)

$1.27

-0.02 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -110.48 | 1.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 396.75309.29552.56708.97909.641,167.121,497.481,921.362,465.213,1634,058.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30.54-90.5582.99-15.50-19.89-25.51-32.74-42-53.89-69.15-88.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21.60-101.3673.54-33.13-42.50-54.53-69.97-89.78-115.19-147.79-189.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.9410.819.4517.6322.6229.0237.2347.7761.2978.64100.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 63.5211.0792.7885.97110.31141.53181.59232.99298.94383.56492.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 51.5055.0795.24113.49145.61186.83239.72307.57394.63506.33649.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 68.4654.7751.14104.50134.08172.03220.73283.20363.37466.22598.19
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 87.2774.2596.40149.94192.39246.84316.71406.36521.39668.97858.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.38-8.95-9.73-17.18-22.05-28.29-36.29-46.57-59.75-76.66-98.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.27
Beta 1.585
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -7.41
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.221
Total Debt 42.95
Total Equity 40.11
Total Capital 83.06
Debt Weighting 51.71
Equity Weighting 48.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 396.75309.29552.56708.97909.641,167.121,497.481,921.362,465.213,1634,058.31
EBITDA 30.54-90.5582.99-15.50-19.89-25.51-32.74-42-53.89-69.15-88.72
EBIT 21.60-101.3673.54-33.13-42.50-54.53-69.97-89.78-115.19-147.79-189.62
Tax Rate 30.20%8.87%17.72%13.98%20.54%-7.41%13.98%13.98%13.98%13.98%13.98%
EBIAT 15.08-92.3760.51-28.49-33.77-58.57-60.18-77.22-99.08-127.12-163.11
Depreciation 8.9410.819.4517.6322.6229.0237.2347.7761.2978.64100.90
Accounts Receivable --3.57-40.17-18.25-32.12-41.22-52.88-67.85-87.06-111.70-143.32
Inventories -13.703.63-53.36-29.58-37.95-48.69-62.48-80.16-102.85-131.97
Accounts Payable --13.0122.1453.5542.4454.4669.8789.65115.02147.58189.36
Capital Expenditure -10.38-8.95-9.73-17.18-13.05-12.62-36.29-46.57-59.75-76.66-98.36
UFCF 13.64-93.3945.83-46.11-52.46-82.55-90.95-116.70-149.73-192.11-246.49
WACC
PV UFCF -49.80-52.46-76.44-77.98-92.64-110.06-130.75-155.33
SUM PV UFCF -612.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) -251.42
Terminal Value -4,190.36
Present Value of Terminal Value -2,851.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,463.99
Net Debt 25.58
Equity Value -3,489.57
Shares Outstanding 31.59
Equity Value Per Share -110.48