Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
$241.03
+4.33 (+1.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 10,551 | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 11,355.46 | 11,573 | 11,794.71 | 12,020.67 | 12,250.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,253 | 3,726 | 3,892 | 3,637 | 4,255 | 3,932.34 | 4,007.67 | 4,084.45 | 4,162.70 | 4,242.45 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,723 | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,809.75 | -1,844.42 | -1,879.76 | -1,915.77 | -1,952.47 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,530 | 1,775 | 1,873 | 2,143 | 2,785 | 2,122.58 | 2,163.25 | 2,204.69 | 2,246.93 | 2,289.97 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 241.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.363 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 246.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.51 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.174 |
| Total Debt | 13,840 |
| Total Equity | 59,389.79 |
| Total Capital | 73,229.79 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.90 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.10 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 10,551 | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 11,355.46 | 11,573 | 11,794.71 | 12,020.67 | 12,250.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,253 | 3,726 | 3,892 | 3,637 | 4,255 | 3,932.34 | 4,007.67 | 4,084.45 | 4,162.70 | 4,242.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,723 | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,809.75 | -1,844.42 | -1,879.76 | -1,915.77 | -1,952.47 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,530 | 1,775 | 1,873 | 2,143 | 2,785 | 2,122.58 | 2,163.25 | 2,204.69 | 2,246.93 | 2,289.97 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,963.17 | 1,850.52 | 1,744.33 | 1,644.24 | 1,549.89 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,752.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.12 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,335.77 |
| Terminal Value | 38,166.20 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 25,831.44 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 34,583.59 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,001 |
| Equity Value | 21,582.59 |
| Shares Outstanding | 246.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 87.59 |