Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
$241.03
+4.33 (+1.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 10,551 | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 11,355.46 | 11,573 | 11,794.71 | 12,020.67 | 12,250.96 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,754 | 5,130 | 5,234 | 4,309 | 5,705 | 5,254.99 | 5,355.66 | 5,458.26 | 5,562.83 | 5,669.40 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 3,695 | 4,026 | 4,095 | 3,155 | 4,524 | 4,070.76 | 4,148.74 | 4,228.22 | 4,309.23 | 4,391.78 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,059 | 1,104 | 1,139 | 1,154 | 1,181 | 1,184.23 | 1,206.92 | 1,230.04 | 1,253.60 | 1,277.62 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 690 | 358 | 580 | 1,115 | 839 | 765.79 | 780.46 | 795.41 | 810.65 | 826.18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 955 | 1,009 | 920 | 848 | 976 | 986.20 | 1,005.10 | 1,024.35 | 1,043.98 | 1,063.98 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 222 | 207 | 244 | 221 | 218 | 233.58 | 238.05 | 242.62 | 247.26 | 252 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 822 | 828 | 710 | 552 | 1,351 | 887.24 | 904.24 | 921.56 | 939.22 | 957.21 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,723 | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,809.75 | -1,844.42 | -1,879.76 | -1,915.77 | -1,952.47 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 241.03 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.363 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 246.40 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 22.51 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.174 |
Total Debt | 13,840 |
Total Equity | 59,389.79 |
Total Capital | 73,229.79 |
Debt Weighting | 18.90 |
Equity Weighting | 81.10 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 10,551 | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 11,355.46 | 11,573 | 11,794.71 | 12,020.67 | 12,250.96 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,754 | 5,130 | 5,234 | 4,309 | 5,705 | 5,254.99 | 5,355.66 | 5,458.26 | 5,562.83 | 5,669.40 |
EBIT | 3,695 | 4,026 | 4,095 | 3,155 | 4,524 | 4,070.76 | 4,148.74 | 4,228.22 | 4,309.23 | 4,391.78 |
Tax Rate | -72.76% | 23.15% | 22.03% | 20.43% | 22.51% | 3.07% | 3.07% | 3.07% | 3.07% | 3.07% |
EBIAT | 6,383.56 | 3,094.07 | 3,192.95 | 2,510.28 | 3,505.58 | 3,945.70 | 4,021.29 | 4,098.33 | 4,176.85 | 4,256.87 |
Depreciation | 1,059 | 1,104 | 1,139 | 1,154 | 1,181 | 1,184.23 | 1,206.92 | 1,230.04 | 1,253.60 | 1,277.62 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -54 | 89 | 72 | -128 | -10.20 | -18.89 | -19.26 | -19.62 | -20 |
Inventories | - | 15 | -37 | 23 | 3 | -15.58 | -4.47 | -4.56 | -4.65 | -4.74 |
Accounts Payable | - | 6 | -118 | -158 | 799 | -463.76 | 17 | 17.32 | 17.66 | 17.99 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,723 | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,809.75 | -1,844.42 | -1,879.76 | -1,915.77 | -1,952.47 |
UFCF | 5,719.56 | 2,214.07 | 2,246.95 | 2,107.28 | 3,890.58 | 2,830.64 | 3,377.41 | 3,442.12 | 3,508.06 | 3,575.27 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 2,618.05 | 2,889.16 | 2,723.38 | 2,567.10 | 2,419.79 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 13,217.49 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.12 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,646.77 |
Terminal Value | 59,587.80 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 40,329.90 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 53,547.39 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 13,001 |
Equity Value | 40,546.39 |
Shares Outstanding | 246.40 |
Equity Value Per Share | 164.56 |