Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)

$241.03

+4.33 (+1.83%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 164.56 | 241.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 10,55111,45811,2969,78911,14211,355.4611,57311,794.7112,020.6712,250.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,7545,1305,2344,3095,7055,254.995,355.665,458.265,562.835,669.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,6954,0264,0953,1554,5244,070.764,148.744,228.224,309.234,391.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,0591,1041,1391,1541,1811,184.231,206.921,230.041,253.601,277.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 6903585801,115839765.79780.46795.41810.65826.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9551,009920848976986.201,005.101,024.351,043.981,063.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 222207244221218233.58238.05242.62247.26252
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8228287105521,351887.24904.24921.56939.22957.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,723-1,951-2,019-1,494-1,470-1,809.75-1,844.42-1,879.76-1,915.77-1,952.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 241.03
Beta 1.363
Diluted Shares Outstanding 246.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.62%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.174
Total Debt 13,840
Total Equity 59,389.79
Total Capital 73,229.79
Debt Weighting 18.90
Equity Weighting 81.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 10,55111,45811,2969,78911,14211,355.4611,57311,794.7112,020.6712,250.96
EBITDA 4,7545,1305,2344,3095,7055,254.995,355.665,458.265,562.835,669.40
EBIT 3,6954,0264,0953,1554,5244,070.764,148.744,228.224,309.234,391.78
Tax Rate -72.76%23.15%22.03%20.43%22.51%3.07%3.07%3.07%3.07%3.07%
EBIAT 6,383.563,094.073,192.952,510.283,505.583,945.704,021.294,098.334,176.854,256.87
Depreciation 1,0591,1041,1391,1541,1811,184.231,206.921,230.041,253.601,277.62
Accounts Receivable --548972-128-10.20-18.89-19.26-19.62-20
Inventories -15-37233-15.58-4.47-4.56-4.65-4.74
Accounts Payable -6-118-158799-463.761717.3217.6617.99
Capital Expenditure -1,723-1,951-2,019-1,494-1,470-1,809.75-1,844.42-1,879.76-1,915.77-1,952.47
UFCF 5,719.562,214.072,246.952,107.283,890.582,830.643,377.413,442.123,508.063,575.27
WACC
PV UFCF 2,618.052,889.162,723.382,567.102,419.79
SUM PV UFCF 13,217.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,646.77
Terminal Value 59,587.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 40,329.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 53,547.39
Net Debt 13,001
Equity Value 40,546.39
Shares Outstanding 246.40
Equity Value Per Share 164.56