Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)

$258.01

+1.82 (+0.71%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 117.67 | 258.01 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 11,2969,78911,14212,74512,15612,467.3812,786.7413,114.2813,450.2113,794.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,2344,6945,7056,0432,8515,394.825,533.025,674.755,820.115,969.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,0953,5404,5244,8221,5534,080.024,184.544,291.734,401.664,514.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,1391,1541,1811,2211,2981,314.801,348.481,383.021,418.451,454.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 5801,1158394561,5681,010.651,036.541,063.091,090.321,118.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9208489761,1481,1471,097.381,125.491,154.321,183.891,214.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 244221218253264262.59269.32276.22283.29290.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,4281,0161,3511,2939971,333.831,3681,403.041,438.981,475.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,019-1,494-1,470-1,948-2,349-2,018.15-2,069.84-2,122.86-2,177.24-2,233.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 258.01
Beta 1.304
Diluted Shares Outstanding 227.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.440
Total Debt 17,571
Total Equity 58,671.47
Total Capital 76,242.47
Debt Weighting 23.05
Equity Weighting 76.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 11,2969,78911,14212,74512,15612,467.3812,786.7413,114.2813,450.2113,794.74
EBITDA 5,2344,6945,7056,0432,8515,394.825,533.025,674.755,820.115,969.19
EBIT 4,0953,5404,5244,8221,5534,080.024,184.544,291.734,401.664,514.41
Tax Rate 22.03%20.43%22.51%20.92%21.38%21.45%21.45%21.45%21.45%21.45%
EBIAT 3,192.952,816.613,505.583,813.231,220.983,204.663,286.753,370.953,457.293,545.85
Depreciation 1,1391,1541,1811,2211,2981,314.801,348.481,383.021,418.451,454.78
Accounts Receivable -72-128-172149.62-28.11-28.83-29.57-30.33
Inventories -233-35-111.41-6.73-6.90-7.08-7.26
Accounts Payable --412335-58-296336.8334.1735.0435.9436.86
Capital Expenditure -2,019-1,494-1,470-1,948-2,349-2,018.15-2,069.84-2,122.86-2,177.24-2,233.01
UFCF 2,312.952,159.613,426.582,821.23-136.022,889.182,564.722,630.422,697.792,766.90
WACC
PV UFCF 2,655.252,166.222,041.821,924.571,814.05
SUM PV UFCF 10,601.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,849.91
Terminal Value 49,051.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 32,159.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 42,761.50
Net Debt 16,003
Equity Value 26,758.50
Shares Outstanding 227.40
Equity Value Per Share 117.67