Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
$228.03
+1.56 (+0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 12,745 | 13,173.67 | 13,616.76 | 14,074.75 | 14,548.15 | 15,037.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,130 | 5,234 | 4,694 | 5,705 | 6,043 | 6,262.14 | 6,472.76 | 6,690.47 | 6,915.50 | 7,148.10 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 4,026 | 4,095 | 3,540 | 4,524 | 4,822 | 4,900.33 | 5,065.15 | 5,235.51 | 5,411.60 | 5,593.62 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,104 | 1,139 | 1,154 | 1,181 | 1,221 | 1,361.81 | 1,407.62 | 1,454.96 | 1,503.90 | 1,554.48 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 358 | 580 | 1,115 | 839 | 456 | 810.37 | 837.63 | 865.80 | 894.92 | 925.02 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 1,009 | 920 | 848 | 976 | 1,148 | 1,142.96 | 1,181.40 | 1,221.14 | 1,262.21 | 1,304.66 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 207 | 244 | 221 | 218 | 253 | 267.85 | 276.85 | 286.17 | 295.79 | 305.74 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,505 | 1,428 | 1,016 | 1,351 | 1,293 | 1,539.37 | 1,591.15 | 1,644.66 | 1,699.98 | 1,757.16 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,948 | -2,071.98 | -2,141.66 | -2,213.70 | -2,288.16 | -2,365.12 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 228.03 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.293 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 235.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 20.82 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.61% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.341 |
Total Debt | 15,182 |
Total Equity | 53,723.87 |
Total Capital | 68,905.87 |
Debt Weighting | 22.03 |
Equity Weighting | 77.97 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 12,745 | 13,173.67 | 13,616.76 | 14,074.75 | 14,548.15 | 15,037.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 5,130 | 5,234 | 4,694 | 5,705 | 6,043 | 6,262.14 | 6,472.76 | 6,690.47 | 6,915.50 | 7,148.10 |
EBIT | 4,026 | 4,095 | 3,540 | 4,524 | 4,822 | 4,900.33 | 5,065.15 | 5,235.51 | 5,411.60 | 5,593.62 |
Tax Rate | 23.15% | 22.03% | 20.43% | 22.51% | 20.82% | 21.79% | 21.79% | 21.79% | 21.79% | 21.79% |
EBIAT | 3,094.07 | 3,192.95 | 2,816.61 | 3,505.58 | 3,817.90 | 3,832.59 | 3,961.50 | 4,094.74 | 4,232.46 | 4,374.82 |
Depreciation | 1,104 | 1,139 | 1,154 | 1,181 | 1,221 | 1,361.81 | 1,407.62 | 1,454.96 | 1,503.90 | 1,554.48 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 89 | 72 | -128 | -172 | 5.04 | -38.44 | -39.74 | -41.07 | -42.45 |
Inventories | - | -37 | 23 | 3 | -35 | -14.85 | -9.01 | -9.31 | -9.63 | -9.95 |
Accounts Payable | - | -77 | -412 | 335 | -58 | 246.37 | 51.78 | 53.52 | 55.32 | 57.18 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,948 | -2,071.98 | -2,141.66 | -2,213.70 | -2,288.16 | -2,365.12 |
UFCF | 2,247.07 | 2,287.95 | 2,159.61 | 3,426.57 | 2,825.90 | 3,358.99 | 3,231.77 | 3,340.47 | 3,452.82 | 3,568.96 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 3,085.61 | 2,727.12 | 2,589.42 | 2,458.68 | 2,334.53 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 13,195.35 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.86 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,640.34 |
Terminal Value | 53,066.15 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 34,711.70 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 47,907.06 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 14,726 |
Equity Value | 33,181.06 |
Shares Outstanding | 235.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | 140.84 |