Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)

$228.03

+1.56 (+0.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 140.84 | 228.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,45811,2969,78911,14212,74513,173.6713,616.7614,074.7514,548.1515,037.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,1305,2344,6945,7056,0436,262.146,472.766,690.476,915.507,148.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,0264,0953,5404,5244,8224,900.335,065.155,235.515,411.605,593.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,1041,1391,1541,1811,2211,361.811,407.621,454.961,503.901,554.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 3585801,115839456810.37837.63865.80894.92925.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,0099208489761,1481,142.961,181.401,221.141,262.211,304.66
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 207244221218253267.85276.85286.17295.79305.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,5051,4281,0161,3511,2931,539.371,591.151,644.661,699.981,757.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,951-2,019-1,494-1,470-1,948-2,071.98-2,141.66-2,213.70-2,288.16-2,365.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 228.03
Beta 1.293
Diluted Shares Outstanding 235.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.82
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.61%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.341
Total Debt 15,182
Total Equity 53,723.87
Total Capital 68,905.87
Debt Weighting 22.03
Equity Weighting 77.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,45811,2969,78911,14212,74513,173.6713,616.7614,074.7514,548.1515,037.47
EBITDA 5,1305,2344,6945,7056,0436,262.146,472.766,690.476,915.507,148.10
EBIT 4,0264,0953,5404,5244,8224,900.335,065.155,235.515,411.605,593.62
Tax Rate 23.15%22.03%20.43%22.51%20.82%21.79%21.79%21.79%21.79%21.79%
EBIAT 3,094.073,192.952,816.613,505.583,817.903,832.593,961.504,094.744,232.464,374.82
Depreciation 1,1041,1391,1541,1811,2211,361.811,407.621,454.961,503.901,554.48
Accounts Receivable -8972-128-1725.04-38.44-39.74-41.07-42.45
Inventories --37233-35-14.85-9.01-9.31-9.63-9.95
Accounts Payable --77-412335-58246.3751.7853.5255.3257.18
Capital Expenditure -1,951-2,019-1,494-1,470-1,948-2,071.98-2,141.66-2,213.70-2,288.16-2,365.12
UFCF 2,247.072,287.952,159.613,426.572,825.903,358.993,231.773,340.473,452.823,568.96
WACC
PV UFCF 3,085.612,727.122,589.422,458.682,334.53
SUM PV UFCF 13,195.35

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,640.34
Terminal Value 53,066.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 34,711.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 47,907.06
Net Debt 14,726
Equity Value 33,181.06
Shares Outstanding 235.60
Equity Value Per Share 140.84