Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)

$29.85

+0.67 (+2.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6.21 | 29.85 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.75102.93101.36114.04122.84132.33142.55153.56165.42178.20
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 7.878.6510.3122.998.3314.3115.4216.6117.8919.28
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.28-1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-1.86-2-2.15-2.32-2.50
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 6.596.678.6921.986.8512.4613.4214.4615.5816.78

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.85
Beta 1.282
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.758
Total Debt 7.07
Total Equity 1,100.48
Total Capital 1,107.55
Debt Weighting 0.64
Equity Weighting 99.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.75102.93101.36114.04122.84132.33142.55153.56165.42178.20
Operating Cash Flow 7.878.6510.3122.998.3314.3115.4216.6117.8919.28
Capital Expenditure -1.28-1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-1.86-2-2.15-2.32-2.50
Free Cash Flow 6.596.678.6921.986.8512.4613.4214.4615.5816.78
WACC
PV LFCF 6.8511.3611.1510.9510.7510.55
SUM PV LFCF 54.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 17.11
Terminal Value 221.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 139.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 194.16
Net Debt -34.66
Equity Value 228.82
Shares Outstanding 36.87
Equity Value Per Share 6.21