Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)

$45.15

+0.12 (+0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 10.74 | 45.15 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 102.93101.36114.04143.59170193.49220.24250.68285.32324.76
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 8.6510.3122.998.3324.7022.8626.0229.6133.7038.36
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-2.96-2.78-3.16-3.60-4.10-4.67
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 6.678.6921.986.8521.7420.0822.8526.0129.6133.70

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 45.15
Beta 1.546
Diluted Shares Outstanding 37.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 13.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.456
Total Debt 5.69
Total Equity 1,670.78
Total Capital 1,676.46
Debt Weighting 0.34
Equity Weighting 99.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 102.93101.36114.04143.59170193.49220.24250.68285.32324.76
Operating Cash Flow 8.6510.3122.998.3324.7022.8626.0229.6133.7038.36
Capital Expenditure -1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-2.96-2.78-3.16-3.60-4.10-4.67
Free Cash Flow 6.678.6921.986.8521.7420.0822.8526.0129.6133.70
WACC
PV LFCF 18.0118.3918.7819.1819.59
SUM PV LFCF 93.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.46
Free cash flow (t + 1) 35.05
Terminal Value 469.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 273.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 367.06
Net Debt -30.27
Equity Value 397.32
Shares Outstanding 37.01
Equity Value Per Share 10.74