Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)

$29.33

-0.52 (-1.74%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.56 | 29.33 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.75102.93101.36114.04122.84132.33142.55153.56165.42178.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 9.8214.8712.3119.0323.9019.4420.9422.5624.3026.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8.4113.4710.8117.3322.1317.5018.8620.3121.8823.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.411.411.491.701.771.932.082.242.422.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 5.318.0318.2540.2246.8027.7829.9232.2334.7237.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 22.7425.9722.9328.0829.2232.0434.5137.1840.0543.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 24.5329.5835.2325.2840.7838.5341.5144.7248.1751.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.815.136.556.0911.078.228.859.5310.2711.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.28-1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-1.86-2-2.15-2.32-2.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 29.33
Beta 1.282
Diluted Shares Outstanding 36.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.800
Total Debt 7.07
Total Equity 1,081.31
Total Capital 1,088.38
Debt Weighting 0.65
Equity Weighting 99.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 91.75102.93101.36114.04122.84132.33142.55153.56165.42178.20
EBITDA 9.8214.8712.3119.0323.9019.4420.9422.5624.3026.18
EBIT 8.4113.4710.8117.3322.1317.5018.8620.3121.8823.57
Tax Rate 8.21%9.09%21.14%14.02%10.29%12.55%12.55%12.55%12.55%12.55%
EBIAT 7.7212.248.5314.9119.8515.3116.4917.7619.1420.61
Depreciation 1.411.411.491.701.771.932.082.242.422.60
Accounts Receivable --3.233.04-5.15-1.14-2.82-2.47-2.67-2.87-3.09
Inventories --5.04-5.659.95-15.502.25-2.98-3.21-3.45-3.72
Accounts Payable -0.331.41-0.454.98-2.860.630.680.740.79
Capital Expenditure -1.28-1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-1.86-2-2.15-2.32-2.50
UFCF 7.853.727.2019.958.4811.9611.7612.6713.6514.70
WACC
PV UFCF 8.4810.909.769.589.409.23
SUM PV UFCF 48.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 14.99
Terminal Value 193.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 121.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 170.16
Net Debt -34.66
Equity Value 204.82
Shares Outstanding 36.87
Equity Value Per Share 5.56