Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)

$45.03

+0.69 (+1.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6.88 | 45.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 102.93101.36114.04143.59170193.49220.24250.68285.32324.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14.8714.1619.032032.2530.1934.3639.1144.5250.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13.4712.6717.3318.2330.3227.6031.4135.7540.6946.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.411.491.701.771.932.592.953.363.824.35
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 8.0318.2540.2246.8066.7551.4458.5566.6475.8686.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.9722.9328.0829.2226.1441.8747.6654.2561.7570.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 29.5835.2325.2840.7835.0652.1259.3267.5276.8687.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.136.556.0911.078.0611.3212.8814.6616.6919
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-2.96-2.78-3.16-3.60-4.10-4.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 45.03
Beta 1.546
Diluted Shares Outstanding 37.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 13.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.559
Total Debt 5.69
Total Equity 1,666.34
Total Capital 1,672.02
Debt Weighting 0.34
Equity Weighting 99.66
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 102.93101.36114.04143.59170193.49220.24250.68285.32324.76
EBITDA 14.8714.1619.032032.2530.1934.3639.1144.5250.67
EBIT 13.4712.6717.3318.2330.3227.6031.4135.7540.6946.32
Tax Rate 9.09%27.85%11.06%10.29%13.13%14.28%14.28%14.28%14.28%14.28%
EBIAT 12.249.1415.4216.3526.3423.6526.9230.6434.8839.70
Depreciation 1.411.491.701.771.932.592.953.363.824.35
Accounts Receivable -3.04-5.15-1.143.07-15.73-5.79-6.59-7.50-8.53
Inventories --5.659.95-15.505.72-17.06-7.20-8.20-9.33-10.62
Accounts Payable -1.41-0.454.98-3.013.261.561.782.032.31
Capital Expenditure -1.99-1.61-1.01-1.48-2.96-2.78-3.16-3.60-4.10-4.67
UFCF 11.667.8120.464.9831.09-6.0715.2817.4019.8022.54
WACC
PV UFCF -5.4412.2812.5312.7813.04
SUM PV UFCF 45.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 23.44
Terminal Value 309.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 179.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 224.28
Net Debt -30.27
Equity Value 254.55
Shares Outstanding 37.01
Equity Value Per Share 6.88