Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
$7.13
+0.32 (+4.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,598.95 | 11,925.86 | 88,949.64 | 663,435.49 | 4,948,268.06 | 36,906,914.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -184.83 | -136.62 | -42.54 | 322.95 | -415.94 | -30,480.44 | -227,339.91 | -1,695,626.53 | -12,646,918.46 | -94,327,697.57 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -865.04 | -6,451.94 | -48,122.09 | -358,921.14 | -2,677,031.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -186.20 | -138.48 | -97.16 | 265.46 | -508.92 | -31,345.47 | -233,791.85 | -1,743,748.62 | -13,005,839.60 | -97,004,729.51 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.13 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.683 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 78.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.66 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.380 |
| Total Debt | 549.78 |
| Total Equity | 557.44 |
| Total Capital | 1,107.23 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.65 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.35 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,598.95 | 11,925.86 | 88,949.64 | 663,435.49 | 4,948,268.06 | 36,906,914.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -184.83 | -136.62 | -42.54 | 322.95 | -415.94 | -30,480.44 | -227,339.91 | -1,695,626.53 | -12,646,918.46 | -94,327,697.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -865.04 | -6,451.94 | -48,122.09 | -358,921.14 | -2,677,031.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | -186.20 | -138.48 | -97.16 | 265.46 | -508.92 | -31,345.47 | -233,791.85 | -1,743,748.62 | -13,005,839.60 | -97,004,729.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -29,015.53 | -200,327.52 | -1,383,090.98 | -9,549,065.87 | -65,928,171.15 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -77,089,671.05 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -98,944,824.10 |
| Terminal Value | -1,640,876,021.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,115,202,895.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,192,292,566.10 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -787.10 |
| Equity Value | -1,192,291,779 |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -15,250,013.16 |