Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
$6.875
-0.17 (-2.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,598.95 | 11,925.86 | 88,949.64 | 663,435.49 | 4,948,268.06 | 36,906,914.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -173.92 | -138.61 | -416.72 | -1,686.58 | -633.77 | -36,358.90 | -271,184.72 | -2,022,645.28 | -15,086,004.80 | -112,519,749.60 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -182.08 | -144.29 | -421.60 | -1,699.24 | -662.82 | -37,746.09 | -281,531.15 | -2,099,814.71 | -15,661,577 | -116,812,684.71 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.16 | 5.68 | 4.89 | 12.66 | 29.05 | 1,387.19 | 10,346.44 | 77,169.43 | 575,572.20 | 4,292,935.12 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 70.15 | 78.82 | 711.05 | 1,515.12 | 1,336.88 | 23,667.23 | 176,523.29 | 1,316,608.13 | 9,819,990.08 | 73,242,905.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | -70.32 | 7.50 | 262.01 | 454.99 | 82.37 | -1,549.67 | -11,558.28 | -86,208.03 | -642,987.06 | -4,795,752.33 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 11.97 | -82.97 | -166.67 | -1,956.97 | 36.68 | -14,624.02 | -109,074.01 | -813,534.15 | -6,067,786.70 | -45,256,901.93 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 9.30 | 2.91 | 54.33 | 127.05 | 216.52 | 1,878.75 | 14,012.77 | 104,514.97 | 779,530.36 | 5,814,167.62 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -865.04 | -6,451.94 | -48,122.09 | -358,921.14 | -2,677,031.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.875 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.683 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 78.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.66 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.422 |
| Total Debt | 549.78 |
| Total Equity | 537.51 |
| Total Capital | 1,087.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.56 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.44 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,598.95 | 11,925.86 | 88,949.64 | 663,435.49 | 4,948,268.06 | 36,906,914.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -173.92 | -138.61 | -416.72 | -1,686.58 | -633.77 | -36,358.90 | -271,184.72 | -2,022,645.28 | -15,086,004.80 | -112,519,749.60 |
| EBIT | -182.08 | -144.29 | -421.60 | -1,699.24 | -662.82 | -37,746.09 | -281,531.15 | -2,099,814.71 | -15,661,577 | -116,812,684.71 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 1.95% | -2.21% | -1.70% | -0.66% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -0.52% |
| EBIAT | -182.08 | -141.47 | -430.92 | -1,728.19 | -667.17 | -37,943.71 | -283,005.14 | -2,110,808.54 | -15,743,575.02 | -117,424,271.24 |
| Depreciation | 8.16 | 5.68 | 4.89 | 12.66 | 29.05 | 1,387.19 | 10,346.44 | 77,169.43 | 575,572.20 | 4,292,935.12 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -77.82 | -254.51 | -192.98 | 372.62 | 1,632.04 | 10,008.61 | 74,649.75 | 556,779.03 | 4,152,765.27 |
| Inventories | - | 94.94 | 83.71 | 1,790.29 | -1,993.65 | 14,660.70 | 94,449.99 | 704,460.14 | 5,254,252.54 | 39,189,115.24 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.39 | 51.42 | 72.72 | 89.47 | 1,662.24 | 12,134.02 | 90,502.20 | 675,015.38 | 5,034,637.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -865.04 | -6,451.94 | -48,122.09 | -358,921.14 | -2,677,031.94 |
| UFCF | -175.29 | -126.93 | -600.04 | -102.99 | -2,262.67 | -19,466.58 | -162,518.02 | -1,212,149.11 | -9,040,877.01 | -67,431,850.29 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -18,029.62 | -139,410.45 | -963,045.36 | -6,652,703.31 | -45,956,777.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -53,729,966.39 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -68,780,487.30 |
| Terminal Value | -1,152,101,964.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -785,191,176.12 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -838,921,142.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -787.10 |
| Equity Value | -838,920,355.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 78.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -10,730,214.44 |