Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)

$2.75

-0.09 (-3.17%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -43.34 | 2.75 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	578.55	520.89	708.39	709.94	601.36	617.83	634.75	652.13	669.99	688.33
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	34.13	21.93	-0.72	46.03	0.07	20.39	20.95	21.53	22.12	22.72
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-10.73	-17.71	-17.20	-14.69	27.16	-6.47	-6.65	-6.83	-7.02	-7.21
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	23.40	4.22	-17.91	31.34	27.23	13.92	14.31	14.70	15.10	15.51

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.75
Beta	0.772
Diluted Shares Outstanding	30.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-3.57
After-tax Cost of Debt	-18.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.163
Total Debt	26.87
Total Equity	85.19
Total Capital	112.07
Debt Weighting	23.98
Equity Weighting	76.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	578.55	520.89	708.39	709.94	601.36	617.83	634.75	652.13	669.99	688.33
Operating Cash Flow	34.13	21.93	-0.72	46.03	0.07	20.39	20.95	21.53	22.12	22.72
Capital Expenditure	-10.73	-17.71	-17.20	-14.69	27.16	-6.47	-6.65	-6.83	-7.02	-7.21
Free Cash Flow	23.40	4.22	-17.91	31.34	27.23	13.92	14.31	14.70	15.10	15.51
WACC
PV LFCF						13.18	13.42	13.66	13.90	14.16
SUM PV LFCF										71.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	0.92
Free cash flow (t + 1)	15.82
Terminal Value	-1,465.12
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,399.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,328.03
Net Debt	14.58
Equity Value	-1,342.61
Shares Outstanding	30.98
Equity Value Per Share	-43.34