Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)
$2.76
-0.06 (-2.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 578.55 | 520.89 | 708.39 | 709.94 | 601.36 | 617.83 | 634.75 | 652.13 | 669.99 | 688.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 31.08 | -66.91 | 36.90 | 60.21 | 3.47 | 8.39 | 8.62 | 8.86 | 9.10 | 9.35 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1.59 | -98.71 | 3.32 | 27.12 | -19.13 | -21.71 | -22.30 | -22.92 | -23.54 | -24.19 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 29.49 | 31.80 | 33.59 | 33.09 | 22.61 | 30.11 | 30.93 | 31.78 | 32.65 | 33.54 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 9.09 | 8.68 | 0.13 | 1.59 | 12.29 | 6.83 | 7.01 | 7.20 | 7.40 | 7.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 170.49 | 118.06 | 201.44 | 225.04 | 0.40 | 138.81 | 142.61 | 146.51 | 150.52 | 154.65 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 4.39 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 1.55 | 1.43 | 1.94 | 2 | 2.05 | 2.11 | 2.17 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 47.18 | 42.76 | 70.98 | 48.97 | 50.04 | 51.41 | 52.81 | 54.26 | 55.75 | 57.27 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.73 | -17.71 | -17.20 | -14.69 | 27.16 | -6.47 | -6.65 | -6.83 | -7.02 | -7.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.772 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30.98 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -3.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -18.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.283 |
| Total Debt | 26.87 |
| Total Equity | 85.50 |
| Total Capital | 112.38 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.91 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.09 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 578.55 | 520.89 | 708.39 | 709.94 | 601.36 | 617.83 | 634.75 | 652.13 | 669.99 | 688.33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 31.08 | -66.91 | 36.90 | 60.21 | 3.47 | 8.39 | 8.62 | 8.86 | 9.10 | 9.35 |
| EBIT | 1.59 | -98.71 | 3.32 | 27.12 | -19.13 | -21.71 | -22.30 | -22.92 | -23.54 | -24.19 |
| Tax Rate | 109.66% | 11.47% | -53.51% | 8.90% | -3.57% | 14.59% | 14.59% | 14.59% | 14.59% | 14.59% |
| EBIAT | -0.15 | -87.39 | 5.09 | 24.70 | -19.82 | -18.54 | -19.05 | -19.57 | -20.11 | -20.66 |
| Depreciation | 29.49 | 31.80 | 33.59 | 33.09 | 22.61 | 30.11 | 30.93 | 31.78 | 32.65 | 33.54 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 52.43 | -83.38 | -23.60 | 224.63 | -138.40 | -3.80 | -3.91 | -4.01 | -4.12 |
| Inventories | - | 3.33 | -0.06 | -0.43 | 0.12 | -0.52 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -4.42 | 28.22 | -22.02 | 1.07 | 1.37 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.53 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.73 | -17.71 | -17.20 | -14.69 | 27.16 | -6.47 | -6.65 | -6.83 | -7.02 | -7.21 |
| UFCF | 18.61 | -21.97 | -33.74 | -2.95 | 255.77 | -132.45 | 2.79 | 2.86 | 2.94 | 3.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -131.12 | 2.73 | 2.78 | 2.82 | 2.87 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -119.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 1.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3.08 |
| Terminal Value | -314.44 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -298.88 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -418.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 14.58 |
| Equity Value | -433.38 |
| Shares Outstanding | 30.98 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -13.99 |