Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN)

$2.76

-0.06 (-2.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -13.99 | 2.76 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 578.55520.89708.39709.94601.36617.83634.75652.13669.99688.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 31.08-66.9136.9060.213.478.398.628.869.109.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1.59-98.713.3227.12-19.13-21.71-22.30-22.92-23.54-24.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 29.4931.8033.5933.0922.6130.1130.9331.7832.6533.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 9.098.680.131.5912.296.837.017.207.407.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 170.49118.06201.44225.040.40138.81142.61146.51150.52154.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4.391.061.111.551.431.9422.052.112.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 47.1842.7670.9848.9750.0451.4152.8154.2655.7557.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -10.73-17.71-17.20-14.6927.16-6.47-6.65-6.83-7.02-7.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.76
Beta 0.772
Diluted Shares Outstanding 30.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -3.57
After-tax Cost of Debt -18.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.283
Total Debt 26.87
Total Equity 85.50
Total Capital 112.38
Debt Weighting 23.91
Equity Weighting 76.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 578.55520.89708.39709.94601.36617.83634.75652.13669.99688.33
EBITDA 31.08-66.9136.9060.213.478.398.628.869.109.35
EBIT 1.59-98.713.3227.12-19.13-21.71-22.30-22.92-23.54-24.19
Tax Rate 109.66%11.47%-53.51%8.90%-3.57%14.59%14.59%14.59%14.59%14.59%
EBIAT -0.15-87.395.0924.70-19.82-18.54-19.05-19.57-20.11-20.66
Depreciation 29.4931.8033.5933.0922.6130.1130.9331.7832.6533.54
Accounts Receivable -52.43-83.38-23.60224.63-138.40-3.80-3.91-4.01-4.12
Inventories -3.33-0.06-0.430.12-0.52-0.05-0.05-0.06-0.06
Accounts Payable --4.4228.22-22.021.071.371.411.451.491.53
Capital Expenditure -10.73-17.71-17.20-14.6927.16-6.47-6.65-6.83-7.02-7.21
UFCF 18.61-21.97-33.74-2.95255.77-132.452.792.862.943.02
WACC
PV UFCF -131.122.732.782.822.87
SUM PV UFCF -119.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.08
Terminal Value -314.44
Present Value of Terminal Value -298.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -418.80
Net Debt 14.58
Equity Value -433.38
Shares Outstanding 30.98
Equity Value Per Share -13.99