Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB)

$7.65

-0.05 (-0.65%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -13.04 | 7.65 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	428.11	422.64	409.71	291.28	380.05	377.42	374.81	372.22	369.64	367.09
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	41.82	30.99	18.17	-11.61	-4.87	12.28	12.19	12.11	12.03	11.94
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-34.68	-21.40	-14.36	-10.92	-9.05	-17.21	-17.09	-16.97	-16.86	-16.74
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	7.14	9.59	3.80	-22.53	-13.92	-4.93	-4.90	-4.86	-4.83	-4.80

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 7.65
Beta	1.180
Diluted Shares Outstanding	27.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-1.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.204
Total Debt	214.69
Total Equity	211.45
Total Capital	426.13
Debt Weighting	50.38
Equity Weighting	49.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	428.11	422.64	409.71	291.28	380.05	377.42	374.81	372.22	369.64	367.09
Operating Cash Flow	41.82	30.99	18.17	-11.61	-4.87	12.28	12.19	12.11	12.03	11.94
Capital Expenditure	-34.68	-21.40	-14.36	-10.92	-9.05	-17.21	-17.09	-16.97	-16.86	-16.74
Free Cash Flow	7.14	9.59	3.80	-22.53	-13.92	-4.93	-4.90	-4.86	-4.83	-4.80
WACC
PV LFCF						-3.72	-3.53	-3.34	-3.17	-3
SUM PV LFCF										-21.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.79
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-4.89
Terminal Value	-175.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	-138.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-159.96
Net Debt	200.34
Equity Value	-360.30
Shares Outstanding	27.64
Equity Value Per Share	-13.04