Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Potbelly Corporation (PBPB)

$7.7

+0.16 (+2.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -58.39 | 7.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 428.11422.64409.71291.28380.05377.42374.81372.22369.64367.09
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23.4912.2112.50-51.02-6.74-5.93-5.89-5.85-5.81-5.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2.19-10.93-9.60-70.85-22.65-26.97-26.78-26.60-26.41-26.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.6823.1422.1019.8315.9121.0320.8920.7420.6020.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 25.5319.7718.8111.1314.3517.2317.1116.9916.8816.76
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.094.744.264.356.034.854.824.794.754.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3.533.483.472.993.493.353.333.313.283.26
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.903.843.896.218.145.315.285.245.205.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -34.68-21.40-14.36-10.92-9.05-17.21-17.09-16.97-16.86-16.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.7
Beta 1.180
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.102
Total Debt 214.69
Total Equity 212.83
Total Capital 427.52
Debt Weighting 50.22
Equity Weighting 49.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 428.11422.64409.71291.28380.05377.42374.81372.22369.64367.09
EBITDA 23.4912.2112.50-51.02-6.74-5.93-5.89-5.85-5.81-5.77
EBIT -2.19-10.93-9.60-70.85-22.65-26.97-26.78-26.60-26.41-26.23
Tax Rate -239.81%17.37%-155.37%9.44%-1.42%-73.96%-73.96%-73.96%-73.96%-73.96%
EBIAT -7.44-9.03-24.52-64.16-22.97-46.91-46.59-46.26-45.94-45.63
Depreciation 25.6823.1422.1019.8315.9121.0320.8920.7420.6020.46
Accounts Receivable -0.350.48-0.10-1.681.180.030.030.030.03
Inventories -0.040.010.48-0.500.140.020.020.020.02
Accounts Payable --0.070.052.321.93-2.83-0.04-0.04-0.04-0.04
Capital Expenditure -34.68-21.39-14.37-10.92-9.05-17.21-17.09-16.97-16.86-16.74
UFCF -16.44-6.96-16.25-52.55-16.36-44.60-42.77-42.48-42.18-41.89
WACC
PV UFCF -42.57-38.97-36.94-35.02-33.20
SUM PV UFCF -186.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -42.73
Terminal Value -1,548.11
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,226.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,413.65
Net Debt 200.34
Equity Value -1,613.99
Shares Outstanding 27.64
Equity Value Per Share -58.39