Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Potbelly Corporation (PBPB)
$7.7
+0.16 (+2.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 428.11 | 422.64 | 409.71 | 291.28 | 380.05 | 377.42 | 374.81 | 372.22 | 369.64 | 367.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 23.49 | 12.21 | 12.50 | -51.02 | -6.74 | -5.93 | -5.89 | -5.85 | -5.81 | -5.77 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -2.19 | -10.93 | -9.60 | -70.85 | -22.65 | -26.97 | -26.78 | -26.60 | -26.41 | -26.23 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 25.68 | 23.14 | 22.10 | 19.83 | 15.91 | 21.03 | 20.89 | 20.74 | 20.60 | 20.46 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 25.53 | 19.77 | 18.81 | 11.13 | 14.35 | 17.23 | 17.11 | 16.99 | 16.88 | 16.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 5.09 | 4.74 | 4.26 | 4.35 | 6.03 | 4.85 | 4.82 | 4.79 | 4.75 | 4.72 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 3.53 | 3.48 | 3.47 | 2.99 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 3.33 | 3.31 | 3.28 | 3.26 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 3.90 | 3.84 | 3.89 | 6.21 | 8.14 | 5.31 | 5.28 | 5.24 | 5.20 | 5.17 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -34.68 | -21.40 | -14.36 | -10.92 | -9.05 | -17.21 | -17.09 | -16.97 | -16.86 | -16.74 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.7 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.180 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.42 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.102 |
| Total Debt | 214.69 |
| Total Equity | 212.83 |
| Total Capital | 427.52 |
| Debt Weighting | 50.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 49.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 428.11 | 422.64 | 409.71 | 291.28 | 380.05 | 377.42 | 374.81 | 372.22 | 369.64 | 367.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 23.49 | 12.21 | 12.50 | -51.02 | -6.74 | -5.93 | -5.89 | -5.85 | -5.81 | -5.77 |
| EBIT | -2.19 | -10.93 | -9.60 | -70.85 | -22.65 | -26.97 | -26.78 | -26.60 | -26.41 | -26.23 |
| Tax Rate | -239.81% | 17.37% | -155.37% | 9.44% | -1.42% | -73.96% | -73.96% | -73.96% | -73.96% | -73.96% |
| EBIAT | -7.44 | -9.03 | -24.52 | -64.16 | -22.97 | -46.91 | -46.59 | -46.26 | -45.94 | -45.63 |
| Depreciation | 25.68 | 23.14 | 22.10 | 19.83 | 15.91 | 21.03 | 20.89 | 20.74 | 20.60 | 20.46 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.35 | 0.48 | -0.10 | -1.68 | 1.18 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Inventories | - | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.48 | -0.50 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.07 | 0.05 | 2.32 | 1.93 | -2.83 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.04 |
| Capital Expenditure | -34.68 | -21.39 | -14.37 | -10.92 | -9.05 | -17.21 | -17.09 | -16.97 | -16.86 | -16.74 |
| UFCF | -16.44 | -6.96 | -16.25 | -52.55 | -16.36 | -44.60 | -42.77 | -42.48 | -42.18 | -41.89 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -42.57 | -38.97 | -36.94 | -35.02 | -33.20 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -186.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.76 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -42.73 |
| Terminal Value | -1,548.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,226.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,413.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 200.34 |
| Equity Value | -1,613.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -58.39 |