Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

$142.06

+0.88 (+0.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 159.91 | 142.06 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,444.907,014.606,964.306,658.207,730.308,113.518,515.728,937.879,380.959,845.99
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 856.101,180.101,207.401,032.801,0941,251.231,313.251,378.361,446.691,518.40
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -343-551.40-399.50-421.20-605-536.65-563.26-591.18-620.49-651.24
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 513.10628.70807.90611.60489714.57750787.18826.20867.16

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 142.06
Beta 0.788
Diluted Shares Outstanding 94.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 79.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.606
Total Debt 146
Total Equity 13,475.24
Total Capital 13,621.24
Debt Weighting 1.07
Equity Weighting 98.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,444.907,014.606,964.306,658.207,730.308,113.518,515.728,937.879,380.959,845.99
Operating Cash Flow 856.101,180.101,207.401,032.801,0941,251.231,313.251,378.361,446.691,518.40
Capital Expenditure -343-551.40-399.50-421.20-605-536.65-563.26-591.18-620.49-651.24
Free Cash Flow 513.10628.70807.90611.60489714.57750787.18826.20867.16
WACC
PV LFCF 665.46650.45635.77621.43607.41
SUM PV LFCF 3,180.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 884.50
Terminal Value 16,440.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,515.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,696.45
Net Debt -472
Equity Value 15,168.45
Shares Outstanding 94.86
Equity Value Per Share 159.91