Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

$143.32

-0.60 (-0.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 140.04 | 143.32 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,444.907,014.606,964.306,658.207,730.308,113.518,515.728,937.879,380.959,845.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,322.601,067.701,045.801,136.101,678.101,452.821,524.841,600.431,679.761,763.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,322.601,067.701,045.80726.201,261.10984.231,033.021,084.231,137.981,194.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---409.90417468.58491.81516.19541.78568.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 216.90361.50767.401,080.20704728.09764.18802.06841.82883.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 900.20918.60872.10837.501,0711,071.291,124.391,180.131,238.641,300.04
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 762.50795.60794.10787.90902942.42989.141,038.181,089.641,143.66
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 402.90382.20351.90387452461.05483.91507.89533.07559.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -343-551.40-399.50-421.20-605-536.65-563.26-591.18-620.49-651.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 143.32
Beta 0.788
Diluted Shares Outstanding 94.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.14
After-tax Cost of Debt 79.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.509
Total Debt 146
Total Equity 13,594.76
Total Capital 13,740.76
Debt Weighting 1.06
Equity Weighting 98.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,444.907,014.606,964.306,658.207,730.308,113.518,515.728,937.879,380.959,845.99
EBITDA 1,322.601,067.701,045.801,136.101,678.101,452.821,524.841,600.431,679.761,763.03
EBIT 1,322.601,067.701,045.80726.201,261.10984.231,033.021,084.231,137.981,194.40
Tax Rate 19.31%23.96%24.06%27.14%24.14%23.72%23.72%23.72%23.72%23.72%
EBIAT 1,067.21811.91794.21529.13956.72750.78788827.06868.06911.09
Depreciation ---409.90417468.58491.81516.19541.78568.64
Accounts Receivable --18.4046.5034.60-233.50-0.29-53.11-55.74-58.50-61.40
Inventories --33.101.506.20-114.10-40.42-46.72-49.03-51.47-54.02
Accounts Payable --20.70-30.3035.10659.0522.8623.9925.1826.43
Capital Expenditure -343-551.40-399.50-421.20-605-536.65-563.26-591.18-620.49-651.24
UFCF 724.21188.31412.42593.73486.12651.05639.58671.29704.57739.49
WACC
PV UFCF 606.87555.72543.69531.92520.40
SUM PV UFCF 2,758.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 754.28
Terminal Value 14,285.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,053.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,811.85
Net Debt -472
Equity Value 13,283.85
Shares Outstanding 94.86
Equity Value Per Share 140.04