Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
PetroChina Company Limited (PTR)
$46.85
+2.66 (+-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 322,542.40 | 376,574.08 | 402,689.60 | 309,413.76 | 418,295.84 | 455,642.78 | 496,324.19 | 540,637.78 | 588,907.85 | 641,487.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 58,664.80 | 56,250.40 | 57,537.60 | 50,972 | 54,635.04 | 70,122.56 | 76,383.35 | 83,203.13 | 90,631.80 | 98,723.73 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -37,920.64 | -44,119.04 | -52,281.92 | -41,076.32 | -52,006.10 | -56,649.39 | -61,707.25 | -67,216.69 | -73,218.04 | -79,755.20 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20,744.16 | 12,131.36 | 5,255.68 | 9,895.68 | 2,628.94 | 13,473.17 | 14,676.10 | 15,986.44 | 17,413.76 | 18,968.53 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 46.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.787 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,830.21 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 41.74 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.45% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.383 |
| Total Debt | 75,247.68 |
| Total Equity | 85,745.34 |
| Total Capital | 160,993.02 |
| Debt Weighting | 46.74 |
| Equity Weighting | 53.26 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 322,542.40 | 376,574.08 | 402,689.60 | 309,413.76 | 418,295.84 | 455,642.78 | 496,324.19 | 540,637.78 | 588,907.85 | 641,487.64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 58,664.80 | 56,250.40 | 57,537.60 | 50,972 | 54,635.04 | 70,122.56 | 76,383.35 | 83,203.13 | 90,631.80 | 98,723.73 |
| Capital Expenditure | -37,920.64 | -44,119.04 | -52,281.92 | -41,076.32 | -52,006.10 | -56,649.39 | -61,707.25 | -67,216.69 | -73,218.04 | -79,755.20 |
| Free Cash Flow | 20,744.16 | 12,131.36 | 5,255.68 | 9,895.68 | 2,628.94 | 13,473.17 | 14,676.10 | 15,986.44 | 17,413.76 | 18,968.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 12,821.82 | 13,291.40 | 13,778.17 | 14,282.77 | 14,805.85 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 68,980 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.08 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 19,347.90 |
| Terminal Value | 628,178.47 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 490,323.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 559,303.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 53,361.44 |
| Equity Value | 505,942.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,830.21 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 276.44 |