Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PetroChina Company Limited (PTR)

$46.85

+2.66 (+-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -229.99 | 46.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 322,542.40376,574.08402,689.60309,413.76418,295.84455,642.78496,324.19540,637.78588,907.85641,487.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44,076.9655,037.4453,124.3244,302.4024,866.5656,259.1861,282.2066,753.6972,713.7079,205.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 8,967.8417,928.8017,082.4010,082.40-17,746.619,841.3610,720.0311,677.1512,719.7313,855.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 35,109.1237,108.6436,041.9234,22042,613.1746,417.8250,562.1755,076.5459,993.9765,350.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 21,779.3615,221.2817,706.4023,35226,801.7626,560.3528,931.7531,514.8834,328.6537,393.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20,043.5221,191.0422,307.0419,626.409,065.4423,594.4525,701.0427,995.7230,495.2833,218.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 23,147.0427,933.7629,107.3620,566.2423,015.6830,957.8533,721.8836,732.6940,012.3143,584.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 16,512.1619,409.9223,733.6018,099.0423,107.0425,097.7527,338.5729,779.4532,438.2735,334.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37,920.64-44,119.04-52,281.92-41,076.32-52,006.10-56,649.39-61,707.25-67,216.69-73,218.04-79,755.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 46.85
Beta 0.787
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,830.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 41.74
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.247
Total Debt 75,247.68
Total Equity 85,745.34
Total Capital 160,993.02
Debt Weighting 46.74
Equity Weighting 53.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 322,542.40376,574.08402,689.60309,413.76418,295.84455,642.78496,324.19540,637.78588,907.85641,487.64
EBITDA 44,076.9655,037.4453,124.3244,302.4024,866.5656,259.1861,282.2066,753.6972,713.7079,205.84
EBIT 8,967.8417,928.8017,082.4010,082.40-17,746.619,841.3610,720.0311,677.1512,719.7313,855.39
Tax Rate 57.06%54.35%55.74%66.10%41.74%55.00%55.00%55.00%55.00%55.00%
EBIAT 3,851.068,184.417,560.583,417.44-10,339.284,428.764,824.185,254.905,724.076,235.14
Depreciation 35,109.1237,108.6436,041.9234,22042,613.1746,417.8250,562.1755,076.5459,993.9765,350.45
Accounts Receivable --1,147.52-1,1162,680.6410,560.96-14,529-2,106.60-2,294.68-2,499.56-2,722.73
Inventories --4,786.72-1,173.608,541.12-2,449.44-7,942.17-2,764.03-3,010.81-3,279.63-3,572.44
Accounts Payable -2,897.764,323.68-5,634.565,0081,990.712,240.822,440.882,658.822,896.20
Capital Expenditure -37,920.64-44,119.04-52,281.92-41,076.32-52,006.10-56,649.39-61,707.25-67,216.69-73,218.04-79,755.20
UFCF 1,039.54-1,862.47-6,645.332,148.32-6,612.69-26,283.27-8,950.70-9,749.85-10,620.36-11,568.58
WACC
PV UFCF -25,031.68-8,118.55-8,422.29-8,737.39-9,064.28
SUM PV UFCF -59,374.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) -11,799.95
Terminal Value -393,331.68
Present Value of Terminal Value -308,185.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -367,559.86
Net Debt 53,361.44
Equity Value -420,921.30
Shares Outstanding 1,830.21
Equity Value Per Share -229.99