Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

PetroChina Company Limited (PTR)

$46.85

+2.66 (+6.01%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -231.29 | 46.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	322,542.40	376,574.08	402,689.60	309,413.76	418,295.84	455,642.78	496,324.19	540,637.78	588,907.85	641,487.64
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	44,076.96	55,037.44	53,124.32	44,302.40	24,866.56	56,259.18	61,282.20	66,753.69	72,713.70	79,205.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	8,967.84	17,928.80	17,082.40	10,082.40	-17,746.61	9,841.36	10,720.03	11,677.15	12,719.73	13,855.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	35,109.12	37,108.64	36,041.92	34,220	42,613.17	46,417.82	50,562.17	55,076.54	59,993.97	65,350.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	21,779.36	15,221.28	17,706.40	23,352	26,801.76	26,560.35	28,931.75	31,514.88	34,328.65	37,393.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	20,043.52	21,191.04	22,307.04	19,626.40	9,065.44	23,594.45	25,701.04	27,995.72	30,495.28	33,218.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	23,147.04	27,933.76	29,107.36	20,566.24	23,015.68	30,957.85	33,721.88	36,732.69	40,012.31	43,584.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	16,512.16	19,409.92	23,733.60	18,099.04	23,107.04	25,097.75	27,338.57	29,779.45	32,438.27	35,334.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-37,920.64	-44,119.04	-52,281.92	-41,076.32	-52,006.10	-56,649.39	-61,707.25	-67,216.69	-73,218.04	-79,755.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 46.85
Beta	0.787
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,830.21
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	41.74
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.209
Total Debt	75,247.68
Total Equity	85,745.34
Total Capital	160,993.02
Debt Weighting	46.74
Equity Weighting	53.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	322,542.40	376,574.08	402,689.60	309,413.76	418,295.84	455,642.78	496,324.19	540,637.78	588,907.85	641,487.64
EBITDA	44,076.96	55,037.44	53,124.32	44,302.40	24,866.56	56,259.18	61,282.20	66,753.69	72,713.70	79,205.84
EBIT	8,967.84	17,928.80	17,082.40	10,082.40	-17,746.61	9,841.36	10,720.03	11,677.15	12,719.73	13,855.39
Tax Rate	57.06%	54.35%	55.74%	66.10%	41.74%	55.00%	55.00%	55.00%	55.00%	55.00%
EBIAT	3,851.06	8,184.41	7,560.58	3,417.44	-10,339.28	4,428.76	4,824.18	5,254.90	5,724.07	6,235.14
Depreciation	35,109.12	37,108.64	36,041.92	34,220	42,613.17	46,417.82	50,562.17	55,076.54	59,993.97	65,350.45
Accounts Receivable	-	-1,147.52	-1,116	2,680.64	10,560.96	-14,529	-2,106.60	-2,294.68	-2,499.56	-2,722.73
Inventories	-	-4,786.72	-1,173.60	8,541.12	-2,449.44	-7,942.17	-2,764.03	-3,010.81	-3,279.63	-3,572.44
Accounts Payable	-	2,897.76	4,323.68	-5,634.56	5,008	1,990.71	2,240.82	2,440.88	2,658.82	2,896.20
Capital Expenditure	-37,920.64	-44,119.04	-52,281.92	-41,076.32	-52,006.10	-56,649.39	-61,707.25	-67,216.69	-73,218.04	-79,755.20
UFCF	1,039.54	-1,862.47	-6,645.33	2,148.32	-6,612.69	-26,283.27	-8,950.70	-9,749.85	-10,620.36	-11,568.58
WACC
PV UFCF						-25,036.45	-8,121.65	-8,427.10	-8,744.05	-9,072.92
SUM PV UFCF										-59,402.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.98
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-11,799.95
Terminal Value	-395,971.49
Present Value of Terminal Value	-310,549.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-369,951.84
Net Debt	53,361.44
Equity Value	-423,313.28
Shares Outstanding	1,830.21
Equity Value Per Share	-231.29