Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)
$234.66
+0.57 (+0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 24,384 | 34,540.45 | 48,927.28 | 69,306.52 | 98,174.15 | 139,065.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,218.78 | 17,308.17 | 24,517.38 | 34,729.39 | 49,194.92 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -3,920 | -8,638.18 | -12,236.17 | -17,332.79 | -24,552.26 | -34,778.79 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,428 | 3,580.60 | 5,072 | 7,184.60 | 10,177.13 | 14,416.12 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 234.66 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.456 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 252 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.16 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.92% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.510 |
| Total Debt | 5,265 |
| Total Equity | 59,134.32 |
| Total Capital | 64,399.32 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 24,384 | 34,540.45 | 48,927.28 | 69,306.52 | 98,174.15 | 139,065.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,218.78 | 17,308.17 | 24,517.38 | 34,729.39 | 49,194.92 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -3,920 | -8,638.18 | -12,236.17 | -17,332.79 | -24,552.26 | -34,778.79 |
| Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,428 | 3,580.60 | 5,072 | 7,184.60 | 10,177.13 | 14,416.12 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 3,233.64 | 4,136.65 | 5,291.84 | 6,769.62 | 8,660.08 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 28,091.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 14,704.45 |
| Terminal Value | 168,435.81 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 101,183.09 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 129,274.91 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,233 |
| Equity Value | 125,041.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 252 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 496.20 |