Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)
$234.66
+0.57 (+0.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 24,384 | 34,540.45 | 48,927.28 | 69,306.52 | 98,174.15 | 139,065.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,218.78 | 17,308.17 | 24,517.38 | 34,729.39 | 49,194.92 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -3,920 | -8,638.18 | -12,236.17 | -17,332.79 | -24,552.26 | -34,778.79 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,428 | 3,580.60 | 5,072 | 7,184.60 | 10,177.13 | 14,416.12 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 234.66 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.456 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 252 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 21.16 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.92% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.510 |
Total Debt | 5,265 |
Total Equity | 59,134.32 |
Total Capital | 64,399.32 |
Debt Weighting | 8.18 |
Equity Weighting | 91.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 24,384 | 34,540.45 | 48,927.28 | 69,306.52 | 98,174.15 | 139,065.76 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,218.78 | 17,308.17 | 24,517.38 | 34,729.39 | 49,194.92 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -3,920 | -8,638.18 | -12,236.17 | -17,332.79 | -24,552.26 | -34,778.79 |
Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,428 | 3,580.60 | 5,072 | 7,184.60 | 10,177.13 | 14,416.12 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 3,233.64 | 4,136.65 | 5,291.84 | 6,769.62 | 8,660.08 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 28,091.82 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.73 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 14,704.45 |
Terminal Value | 168,435.81 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 101,183.09 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 129,274.91 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 4,233 |
Equity Value | 125,041.91 |
Shares Outstanding | 252 |
Equity Value Per Share | 496.20 |