Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

$233.36

+5.49 (+2.41%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 485.55 | 233.36 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,379	9,671	7,024	17,870	24,384	34,540.45	48,927.28	69,306.52	98,174.15	139,065.76
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,990	3,262	1,846	8,655	12,818	13,325.09	18,875.28	26,737.23	37,873.85	53,649.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,456	1,038	-203	5,540	10,288	6,670.48	9,448.87	13,384.52	18,959.46	26,856.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,534	2,224	2,049	3,115	2,530	6,654.62	9,426.41	13,352.70	18,914.39	26,792.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,440	818	1,565	4,040	1,204	5,086.97	7,205.80	10,207.17	14,458.67	20,481.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	820	1,042	699	1,685	2,017	3,258.55	4,615.80	6,538.38	9,261.76	13,119.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	243	205	224	369	424	808.49	1,145.24	1,622.25	2,297.95	3,255.10
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,624	1,411	1,030	2,559	2,637	4,953.37	7,016.55	9,939.09	14,078.93	19,943.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-3,520	-2,988	-1,602	-3,169	-3,920	-8,638.18	-12,236.17	-17,332.79	-24,552.26	-34,778.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 233.36
Beta	1.456
Diluted Shares Outstanding	252
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.16
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.92%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.401
Total Debt	5,265
Total Equity	58,806.72
Total Capital	64,071.72
Debt Weighting	8.22
Equity Weighting	91.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,379	9,671	7,024	17,870	24,384	34,540.45	48,927.28	69,306.52	98,174.15	139,065.76
EBITDA	2,990	3,262	1,846	8,655	12,818	13,325.09	18,875.28	26,737.23	37,873.85	53,649.11
EBIT	1,456	1,038	-203	5,540	10,288	6,670.48	9,448.87	13,384.52	18,959.46	26,856.48
Tax Rate	21.82%	23.40%	23.37%	22.87%	21.16%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%	22.53%
EBIAT	1,138.26	795.06	-155.56	4,273.02	8,110.68	5,167.86	7,320.38	10,369.48	14,688.59	20,806.69
Depreciation	1,534	2,224	2,049	3,115	2,530	6,654.62	9,426.41	13,352.70	18,914.39	26,792.63
Accounts Receivable	-	-222	343	-986	-332	-1,241.55	-1,357.25	-1,922.58	-2,723.37	-3,857.72
Inventories	-	38	-19	-145	-55	-384.49	-336.75	-477.02	-675.70	-957.15
Accounts Payable	-	-213	-381	1,529	78	2,316.37	2,063.18	2,922.54	4,139.84	5,864.17
Capital Expenditure	-3,520	-2,988	-1,602	-3,169	-3,920	-8,638.18	-12,236.17	-17,332.79	-24,552.26	-34,778.79
UFCF	-847.74	-365.94	234.44	4,617.02	6,411.68	3,874.63	4,879.80	6,912.34	9,791.48	13,869.84
WACC
PV UFCF						3,502.65	3,987.81	5,106.51	6,539.04	8,373.42
SUM PV UFCF										27,509.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.62
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14,147.23
Terminal Value	164,121.03
Present Value of Terminal Value	99,082.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	126,591.71
Net Debt	4,233
Equity Value	122,358.71
Shares Outstanding	252
Equity Value Per Share	485.55