Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Saia, Inc. (SAIA)

$241.41

+1.01 (+0.42%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 29.05 | 241.41 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,378.51	1,653.85	1,786.74	1,822.37	2,288.70	2,606.79	2,969.09	3,381.73	3,851.73	4,387.05
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	157.85	256.44	272.88	309.15	382.59	395.76	450.76	513.41	584.76	666.03
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-186.70	-223.67	-287.66	-231.14	-285.75	-356.27	-405.79	-462.19	-526.42	-599.59
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-28.85	32.76	-14.78	78	96.85	39.48	44.97	51.22	58.34	66.45

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 241.41
Beta	1.341
Diluted Shares Outstanding	26.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.170
Total Debt	160.38
Total Equity	6,448.79
Total Capital	6,609.16
Debt Weighting	2.43
Equity Weighting	97.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,378.51	1,653.85	1,786.74	1,822.37	2,288.70	2,606.79	2,969.09	3,381.73	3,851.73	4,387.05
Operating Cash Flow	157.85	256.44	272.88	309.15	382.59	395.76	450.76	513.41	584.76	666.03
Capital Expenditure	-186.70	-223.67	-287.66	-231.14	-285.75	-356.27	-405.79	-462.19	-526.42	-599.59
Free Cash Flow	-28.85	32.76	-14.78	78	96.85	39.48	44.97	51.22	58.34	66.45
WACC
PV LFCF						23.57	24.63	25.74	26.90	28.12
SUM PV LFCF										198.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.98
Free cash flow (t + 1)	67.77
Terminal Value	970.98
Present Value of Terminal Value	631.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	829.89
Net Debt	53.79
Equity Value	776.10
Shares Outstanding	26.71
Equity Value Per Share	29.05