Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Saia, Inc. (SAIA)

$241.41

+1.01 (+0.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 29.05 | 241.41 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,378.511,653.851,786.741,822.372,288.702,606.792,969.093,381.733,851.734,387.05
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 157.85256.44272.88309.15382.59395.76450.76513.41584.76666.03
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -186.70-223.67-287.66-231.14-285.75-356.27-405.79-462.19-526.42-599.59
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -28.8532.76-14.787896.8539.4844.9751.2258.3466.45

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 241.41
Beta 1.341
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.170
Total Debt 160.38
Total Equity 6,448.79
Total Capital 6,609.16
Debt Weighting 2.43
Equity Weighting 97.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,378.511,653.851,786.741,822.372,288.702,606.792,969.093,381.733,851.734,387.05
Operating Cash Flow 157.85256.44272.88309.15382.59395.76450.76513.41584.76666.03
Capital Expenditure -186.70-223.67-287.66-231.14-285.75-356.27-405.79-462.19-526.42-599.59
Free Cash Flow -28.8532.76-14.787896.8539.4844.9751.2258.3466.45
WACC
PV LFCF 23.5724.6325.7426.9028.12
SUM PV LFCF 198.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 67.77
Terminal Value 970.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 631.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 829.89
Net Debt 53.79
Equity Value 776.10
Shares Outstanding 26.71
Equity Value Per Share 29.05