Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Saia, Inc. (SAIA)

$185.48

+1.94 (+1.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -1.91 | 185.48 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,378.511,653.851,786.741,822.372,288.702,606.792,969.093,381.733,851.734,387.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 181.93243.40272.47316.11477.69424.29483.26550.43626.93714.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 94.83141.25153.34181.45335.98253.58288.83328.97374.69426.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 87.10102.15119.14134.66141.70170.71194.44221.46252.24287.29
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 4.722.190.2525.31106.5934.0738.8044.2050.3457.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 174.27183.44204.41217276.76308.51351.38400.22455.84519.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 57.7278.9983.6289.38114.01122.67139.72159.14181.26206.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -186.70-223.67-287.66-231.14-285.75-356.27-405.79-462.19-526.42-599.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 185.48
Beta 1.441
Diluted Shares Outstanding 26.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.676
Total Debt 160.38
Total Equity 4,954.73
Total Capital 5,115.11
Debt Weighting 3.14
Equity Weighting 96.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,378.511,653.851,786.741,822.372,288.702,606.792,969.093,381.733,851.734,387.05
EBITDA 181.93243.40272.47316.11477.69424.29483.26550.43626.93714.06
EBIT 94.83141.25153.34181.45335.98253.58288.83328.97374.69426.77
Tax Rate -1.53%22.71%22.46%21.52%23.90%17.81%17.81%17.81%17.81%17.81%
EBIAT 96.28109.17118.91142.40255.68208.42237.38270.37307.95350.75
Depreciation 87.10102.15119.14134.66141.70170.71194.44221.46252.24287.29
Accounts Receivable --9.16-20.97-12.59-59.76-31.75-42.88-48.84-55.62-63.35
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -21.284.635.7624.638.6617.0519.4222.1225.19
Capital Expenditure -186.70-223.67-287.65-231.14-285.75-356.27-405.79-462.19-526.42-599.59
UFCF -3.31-0.24-65.9639.0976.50-0.240.200.230.260.30
WACC
PV UFCF -0.210.170.170.180.18
SUM PV UFCF 0.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 0.30
Terminal Value 3.62
Present Value of Terminal Value 2.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2.69
Net Debt 53.79
Equity Value -51.10
Shares Outstanding 26.71
Equity Value Per Share -1.91