Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

$58.93

-2.52 (-4.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -11.99 | 58.93 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.425,196.105,873.636,639.497,505.238,483.849,590.06
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 84.35262.55-30.33122.95-440.8047.8754.1261.1769.1578.17
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-45.18-61.99-70.07-79.21-89.53-101.21
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 59.52237.71-74.6764.94-485.98-14.11-15.95-18.03-20.39-23.04

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.93
Beta 1.269
Diluted Shares Outstanding 53.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.872
Total Debt 596.76
Total Equity 3,159.53
Total Capital 3,756.30
Debt Weighting 15.89
Equity Weighting 84.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,360.493,500.363,339.283,557.425,196.105,873.636,639.497,505.238,483.849,590.06
Operating Cash Flow 84.35262.55-30.33122.95-440.8047.8754.1261.1769.1578.17
Capital Expenditure -24.82-24.85-44.34-58.02-45.18-61.99-70.07-79.21-89.53-101.21
Free Cash Flow 59.52237.71-74.6764.94-485.98-14.11-15.95-18.03-20.39-23.04
WACC
PV LFCF -8.67-9.04-9.42-9.82-10.24
SUM PV LFCF -70.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -23.50
Terminal Value -364.41
Present Value of Terminal Value -242.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -313.72
Net Debt 329.37
Equity Value -643.09
Shares Outstanding 53.62
Equity Value Per Share -11.99